Midst Toil And Tribulation – Snippet 15
Greyghor Stohnar was a strong man, but he’d sat in his pew in Siddar Cathedral with his face buried in his hands, shoulders heaving, as he listened to the joyously tolling bells and wept in gratitude when that first convoy sailed into Bedard Bay. The schooner sent ahead to tell him it was coming, delayed by The Anvil’s quixotic headwinds, had arrived less than twelve hours before the convoy itself, and the Charisian seamen aboard those galleons had labored until they collapsed, unloading sack after sack of Charisian and Emeraldian rice and yams and corn, Tarotisian potatoes, carrots, and apples. Swaying cask after cask of preserved fish, pork, beef, and dragon out of their ships’ holds and into the lighters alongside or the wagons waiting in endless lines along Siddar City’s wharves. Lightering ashore the milk cows sent to replace those which had been slaughtered in desperation as the fodder ran out and the people starved, and the fodder to keep at least some of the surviving farm animals alive.
Foods like rice and yams were virtually unknown in the Republic, but mothers with pinched, gaunt faces had stood for hours in biting wind and cold, soaking rain to take home a few pounds of the exotic Charisian foods which would make the difference between their children’s lives and deaths. And as any galleon was emptied, it turned, setting sail back towards Charis, more often than not with a cargo of orphans or the sick to be delivered to Charisian orphanages, hospitals, and monasteries.
It was the largest relief effort in Safehold’s history, tying up almost a quarter of the empire’s total merchant fleet. The repercussions of that on trade and military logistics scarcely bore thinking upon, yet it had sent enough food to feed over a million and a half people at least a thousand calories a day and keep almost a half million desperately needed farm animals alive for three months. Three months in which Charis, Tarot, and Emerald would double the land they had under cultivation and labor gangs throughout eastern Siddarmark would put seed into the ground anywhere it wasn’t too frozen to plow.
Too many had died anyway, and more would die still, but Siddar City wasn’t the only place Charisian convoys had landed their life-saving supplies. Trokhanos Province, Malitar, Windmoor, Rollings . . . Charisian ships had been everywhere, landing lifesaving supplies wherever they could find a few fathoms of seawater.
There were those who wondered how even monarchs as legendary for their foresight as Cayleb and Sharleyan Ahrmahk could have known to begin organizing that relief effort five-days before the first messenger from Siddarmark ever reached them. Most accepted Maikel Staynair’s explanation — totally honest, as far as it went — that Charisian agents had begun to suspect Clyntahn’s intentions well before the “Sword of Schueler” struck. For the diehard Temple Loyalists, there was a simpler more acceptable explanation, of course — one supplied and endorsed by the Inquisition. They’d long since decided that in addition to all the blasphemies and heresies the world knew about, Cayleb and Sharleyan had sold themselves to Shan-wei — Cayleb in return for his demon familiar Merlin Athrawes and the sorceress Sharleyan in return for the power to steal the hearts and minds of even the godliest men and seduce them into Shan-wei’s evil — so of course they could foresee the future, as well.
Frankly, there was more truth in that explanation (in Safeholdian terms, at least) than Merlin really cared for, but the vast majority of Siddarmarkians didn’t care how Cayleb and Sharleyan had known. No, what they cared about was that the House of Ahrmahk had begun assembling those convoys of food and medical supplies long before they’d been asked to, and that they’d sent them to the Republic with no strings attached. No demand for payment, for alliances. No political conditions or stipulations. The Empire and Church of Charis had simply sent everything it had the hulls to move, and that was why a strong man had sat in a cathedral and wept as his capital’s church bells rang out the news that even in a world gone mad, there was a realm and a church which simply sent what it had to those who needed it so desperately.
There was an edge of realpolitik to it, of course. No one in Charis could be blind to the gratitude and goodwill that relief effort had bought the Empire. Yet that truly hadn’t been the primary reason Cayleb and Sharleyan had mounted it. A highly desirable second wyvern to hit with the same stone, yes, but Merlin knew that food would have moved north across Safehold’s stormy seas even if they’d known no alliance, no treaties of mutual aid, would ever come of it.
Not that anyone was going to complain — assuming Staynair was right and Stohnar and the Republic survived the winter — over what had come of it.
“There’s no question in my mind that Stohnar’s going to agree to the draft treaty terms when they get to Dragoner,” he said now. “There’s not a thing in them that doesn’t track exactly with his own offer of alliance, and frankly, without us, he doesn’t have a chance of holding off the Group of Four.”
“Especially not with that army Rahnyld’s about to send over the border into the South March,” Cayleb said grimly. “Oh, and let’s not forget that ‘voluntary’ free passage for Desnairian troops Trynair’s about to extort out of Silkiah, either.”
“Agreed.” Merlin nodded, his eyes watching as a trio of war galleons made sail, standing slowly out of King’s Harbor into the broader, darker waters of Howell Bay for gunnery practice. “Clyntahn and Maigwair are at least smart enough to know they have to go for a quick knockout, before we can intervene effectively.”
“How long do you think?” Cayleb asked. “Another month?”
“Probably.” Merlin’s expression was thoughtful. “It might be a little longer — thank God Rahnyld’s army doesn’t have its own equivalent of Thirsk! They’re getting themselves organized faster than I could wish, though, even without that. Desnair’s going to be at least another four or five five-days behind that, unless they do go ahead and ferry a Desnairian invasion force across Salthar Bay to support the Dohlarans.”
“Not going to happen.” There was no doubt at all in Cayleb’s tone. “Rahnyld trusts Mahrys about as far as Clyntahn trusts me. Even if the Group of Four gives him a direct order to pass Mahrys through his kingdom, he’ll drag his heels harder than Sharley ever did when the ‘Knights of the Temple Lands’ ordered her to help Hektor burn Charis to the ground! He’ll argue — and with some justification, really — that he doesn’t have the bottoms to move that many men, or the logistic capability to support them all through Dohlar. And he’ll spin it out long enough that by the time he’s done, Mahrys will have his invasion route through Silkiah cleared, instead At which point, it’ll still take another month actually get any Desnarian troops into Siddarmark.”
It was possible Cayleb was being a bit overly optimistic, Merlin thought, but overall he agreed with the emperor’s analysis, and Sharleyan was nodding firmly.
“That’s good,” Staynair said. “Unfortunately, unless I’m mistaken, that still means Emperor Mahrys is likely to be invading the Republic before Duke Eastshare can get anywhere near enough of the Army into Siddarmark to stop him. And then there’s King Rahnyld, of course.”
“True,” Cayleb said in a harsher, darker tone. “That suggestion we send a message from Zhevons was a good one, Merlin. But even with Kynt to do the planning and prodding, the thought of marching an army through Raven’s Land to the Passage of Storms obviously doesn’t really appeal to Eastshare. And I’m not surprised it doesn’t, to be fair. Even if the Raven Lords decide to actively cooperate rather than harassing him every step of the way, any army he force-marches across those so-called roads is going to be more than a little ragged by the time it finally gets to Siddarmark. At which point, I might add, it’s going to be at the wrong end of the Republic to stop Dohlar or Desnair.”
“I know, but it would still get them there faster than we could move them the full distance by sea. This time at least. And every mile he marches them west is one less mile a transport will have to cross. Even if he only gets them as far as Marisahl before we can start getting transports to him, it’ll cut his arrival time a lot. And if he gets as far as, say, Malphyra Bay, we can cut the number of transports he needs in half because of the reduced turn around time for the round trip. Especially if he keeps on marching west with the second echelon of his army while the first one’s en route aboard ship. He can be in Marisahl forty days after he crosses The Fence, if he pushes hard, and in Malphyra in another twenty. And we wouldn’t have to send him across to Rollings Province once we got him aboard ship, you know. There’d be time to pick another destination if it seemed like a good idea.”
Interesting… anyone have the timejump duration we just went through?
“There’d be time to pick another destination if it seemed like a good idea.” Temple Lands??
Really REALLY curious how the church is (or isn’t) handling all this logistical stuff. Cayleb’s team really seems to have a handle on the problems involved. I have to believe that the CoGA has a competent quartermaster corps. SoS was a total suprise to them, how are they handling it? And I want to read about it.
This is in the middle of winter.
Raven’s Land is further north than the Temple and Chisholm. So lot of snow.
Marching from eastern Chisholm to western Chisholm is 2000 miles. Up the Ravens Land, another 3,000 miles.
That’s 5000 miles of marching in the middle of winter.
LA to NY is about 2,500 miles.
Is this even feasible for humans?
Paris to Moscow is 1,700 miles.
Marching 5,000 miles in the middle of winter and in the snow (worse snow than the Temple) doesn’t seem realistic.
http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/entry/Safehold/338/1
Look at the updated map and all these locations mentioned
“Marisahl forty days after he crosses The Fence if he pushes hard, and in Malphyra in another twenty”
Why waste 60 days marching up north when it won’t get you that further West?
Wouldn’t transport from Ahlysberg (before The Fence) be better? March West 2,000 miles to get to Ahlysberg. Ships transport from there. Why go up North (3,000 miles) into Raven’s Land? in the middle of winter, in the snow?
@6 John, they won’t have the lift to ferry all the troops together, so the available ships have to make 2 or three trips. The idea is that if each trips is shorter than the previous one, the total miles sailed and time spent will be less. These are sailing ships, so one of the wind will be against them for one of the legs; reducing the distance also reduces the time spent fighting headwinds. If you look at Ahlysberg, it lies about 20% farther from Siddar City than Marisahl. So, since the troops can’t be picked up all at once, they move closer for each following pickup. The size of the detachment that is going all the way to Marisahl can’t be too large because they have to feed everyone going. Odds are that there are supplies of food available along the way. Again the size of the contingent can’t be too large or those supplying the food won’t have enough for themselves.
A more interesting question is where the follow-on contingents are headed. I suspect that Icewind almost has to be a destination. If Icewind is secured for the Protector, the Border Kingdoms will be worried about their own lands being invaded. I may be mistaken, but that last sentence of the snippet suggests that Kynt will be leaving with the last contingent. This suggests that Kynt will be a flanking force and the first contingents sent will go to Siddar City and Cayleb.
I am kind of hoping that Kynt is in charge of the FIRST contingent that goes, because he is the one with access to OWL and real time recon. He could be the crucial difference in getting the available troops to a place that they could make the most difference (I believe “firstest with the mostest” might be important).
I wonder just how much of the Republic’s army remained loyal, both the officer corp and common soldiers. In the American Civil War the majority of the better commanders joined the Southern Cause, which played a great part in the South’s early victories. Likewise, I can’t help but believe there are a number of Temple Loyalists still in the ranks of the military that are waiting for the right moment to comitt acts of sabotage or other treasonous actions that could badly hinder the army’s ability to fight and fend off invasion. Don’t know if Weber will address how Stohnar’s military leadership will deal with that or did Aivah have some part to play to weed out traitors that we haven’t yet learned of? In any case it appears Stohnar was extremely fortunate that there were enough competent commanders and loyal troops to hold the passes in the Moon Thorn and Snow Barren Mountains (per the previous snippet).
Since it appears that Charis can’t land enough troops quickly enough to directly counter the Desnarian’s invasion force, I think that the ‘second echelon of his army’ could be packed onto transports and be used to execute a “Battle of Inchon†style invasion to cut-off and flank the invasion force. The question is where such a landing should take place to have the maximum effect?
“Raven Lords” – they sound fascinating. Is there anything interesting we might hear about them?
::Keeping eye on snerk collar::
We will see more about the Raven Lords before the snippets end.
@8 Damon, better to have Kynt on the second wave, so Cayleb can lead the first wave. At which point there are two echelons with real time recon.
@12 – PeterZ
Cayleb leading the first wave? I seriously doubt that. First, Cayleb’s a sailor, not a soldier. This is going to be brutal land war, and you need a real land war expert in charge. Second, this is going to be up close, personal, and vicious warfare, and you absolutely do not want to risk the king.
Merlin MIGHT lead the first wave, because his combat skills will keep him from any serious harm; however, I really doubt that also. Nimue’s expertise is not in strategic and tactical land war; therefore, I don’t see that Merlin would make the best choice for leading the first wave.
I think that Kynt will go in on the first wave.
Wanna bet a virtual beverage? I ‘ll even toss in a gratuitous bit of self congratulation.
@12 & @13 I hadn’t really considered Cayleb, probably because I thought that he would be busy ruling. But Shary is perfectly capable of doing that chore, and there is a snippet on DW’s site that has Merlin in Siddar City sometime in the book. Perhaps Cayleb does get involved with the land war. As long as someone is in charge of the ICA forces that has access to OWL that purpose is served.
I agree that risking Cayleb on a battlefield with the era of tech that is available is chancy, but the political payoff of his active participation in a campaign in Siddarmark should be huge.
Can’t wait for September.
@15 Damon. I was thinking that Eastshare was going with the first wave. He would out rank anyone but Cayleb. So, Cayleb would almost have to go. Merlin just wouldn’t cut it. I simply don’t see how Eastshare would not be going to the most important military campaign in the Empire’s history. Can you give me a reason that Eastshare would accept for anything else?
“Is this even feasible for humans?”
IIRC, the “Long March” was 6,000 Km’s.
That is about 4,000 miles or so. Time would be a problem. Averaging 15 Km’s per day would be outstanding. So that is 400 days. Given the need to forage, add 50%. So we are looking at almost 2 years. Moral would be a problem.
Are your distance measurements taking into account the curvature of Safehold at that northern lattitude? I would be that what looks like 5,000 miles on a flat map is really more like 3,000 to 3,500.
@17 – stoicheion
The Long March lost more than 3/4 of the manpower it had when it began. This is not acceptable for the EoC.
@14 – PeterZ
Sure, I’ll bet a virtual root beer (IBC, ice cold) that Cayleb does NOT go in the first wave.
@19 Cayleb is in Telesberg, Robert. I was betting that Cayleb would accompany the first wave in battle. And that Kynt would arrive with the second wave somewhere where Cayleb wasn’t.
I am willing to bet he gets to Siddermark before the first wave of the ICA arrives from Chisholm, but that’s a different wager.
Now if yours was a carefully crafted bet to sucker me into a bad bet, thou hast failed! ;-)
@21 – PeterZ
Darn! All that crafty scheming for naught! :-)
He might go to Siddarmark, and he could arrive before the first wave of the ICA arrives from Chisholm. But I am willing to bet that Cayleb will NOT accompany the first wave in battle. It sounds ridiculously risky to me, and, as I said @13, Cayleb’s a sailor, not a soldier. He’s needs to sit this out and let the professional army officers take the risks.
Cayleb would be more useful in Siddarmark being involved in forging the alliance than he would be leading forces in battle.
@22 Totally agree, Drak. He’ll likely plan on doing just that …..then the plot will twist and voila! Cayleb finds himself the best option for leading troops to address a surprise AoG threat.
Folks, the Safehold map is a Transverse Mercatur projection, a sphere projected onto a cylinder, and then the cylinder is unrolled and flattened. All Parallel (latitude) and Meridian (longitude) lines are shown perpendicular to the other, and equadistant to alike lines, The result is increased distance stretching the further from the equator. At 60 degrees north or south, one mile looks like 2 miles. At 80 degrees, 1 mile appears to be 6 miles.
DW has never indicated the northern or southern most latitudes shown on his map, it is probably in the high 70’s or greater. So the actual distance between Rollings Head and Iron Cape is much less than it appears – that DW placed his distance scales in northern Markovian Sea and southern Carter’s Ocean is very deceptive and hampers our ability to measure true distances.
Second, maritime age of sail travel is not like land travel, because wind, waves and currents dictate how and where you transit. There were real good reasons that travel from England to American colonies was a big triangle – England to Canaries, Canaries to Lesser Antilles, then north along the Antilles and across the Gulf Stream to American east coast, vice directly from England to New England.
PeterZ, why do I remember that Cayleb was involved in the land war portion of the conquest of Corisande?
@25 Because, robert, you are both observant and insightful. Since he now has an heir, the arguments Kynt made to him then are a bit less poignant now.
Wow! Nice writing, I actually teared up a bit. Bleek!
So the EoC has an OFFICIAL ally on the mainland, and Clyntahn just had a coronary. (We WISH!) Ironic how his own biases and stupidity forced the very thing he wanted to AVOID at all costs to happen…
As for marching the IAC all the way across Chisholm and the Lands of the Raven Lords, I looked at the map and shook my head, then realized it’s a flat representation of a GLOBE. So I pulled up the globe of Safehold somebody made for the Celestia software some time back, and the curvature at those latitudes is fairly extreme. The standard flat map of the Earth shows Greenland as being HUGE when it’s actually 9 times smaller than the “comparatively” sized South America. Northern and southern Safehold are distorted on a flat map, so the distances are less than they appear – considerably shorter where the Lands of the Raven Lords are concerned. (Which I first wondered about then Zhevons sent a message from Iron Cape because that was faster than a courier ship to Maikelberg on the east coast of Chisholm.)
Still, the distances involved are far from minor. Just getting across Chisholm, either going across or around two mountain ranges appears to be at least 2000 miles since the topography prevents them from traveling in a straight line. The best route for this time of year would be to march south to Cherayth, around Lake Megdan, across the width of Chisolm, through the mountain gap in The Grand Duchy of Mountainheart, and from there to Ahylsberg, just below the Fence. The route through the Lands of the Raven Lords is pretty obvious, just hug the western coast and head northwest.
The army can be resupplied locally as it crosses Chisholm, so it doesn’t need to carry huge amounts of food or fodder. We don’t know what month it is, but even at an optimistic 20 miles per day, it will take 100 days or 3 1/3 months to get to the western coast. Assuming it’s early February, it would take all of February, March, and April, and part of May to march that far, by which time their animals can forage on local grasses.
Their heavy artillery was under construction in Charis last we heard, so they may not even receive it until they land in Siddarmark. So they’re traveling as light infantry, with just their rifles and gear. They don’t need to bring powder, bullets, or cannon, as the transports can carry those to from Charis to Rollings, drop them off (with a substantial guard) then ferry troops from Chisolm/Land of the Raven Lords.
Textev shows the prevailing winds blow from the west, so every mile west the army marches makes the slow, sea-sick inducing voyage west to Siddarmark that much shorter.
Drak, if you’ve set us up with another “hint” I’m going to THROTTLE YOU! Saying “We will see more about the Raven Lords before the snippets end” makes me wonder if the army will march through their lands at all. Your snerk collar generally impedes you from being helpful in our conjectures, so when you appear to be, I smell a rat! Perhaps we’ll see the Raven Lords conferring, worried that the request from the IAC to cross the Fence and march as far as Malphyra might be an elaborate ruse to invade, so they refuse to grant permission. Since Cayleb & Sharley have no intention of invading them at the moment, nor the time to do it properly, that would leave the army stuck at Ahlysberg, in NW Chisholm to await pickup. A member of the inner-circle needs to be with the fleet that will ferry the ICA to tell the fleet admiral where to pick up the troops.
If the first troops are dropped off in Rollings, they should immediately assault and retake Midhold Province (or pick up their arms from Rollings and be dropped off there.) The next group should go to Siddar City. The last – either Icewind to prevent it from falling to the Border States, as it’s on its own right now, or WAAAAY down south, to retake Thesmar and Fort Darymahn in the South March Lands, since the ICN really needs access to those rivers. They can reach them from Icewind or Siddar City as well, but it’s best to control all the entry and exit points. Plus that puts somebody in the way of the invading armies of Dohlar and Desnair, who REALLY need to be introduced to being the targets of rifled artillery and breech loading rifles! Bleek!
Caleb also has a confident army now with commanders well versed in modern warfare. This isn’t a outsized contingent of marines like Corisande. I imagine that Caleb will go to Sidemark where his primary mission will be diplomacy. Undoubtedly he we help shape the overall strategy of the defense of Sidemark as the commander in chief but it will be up to his Generals to implement it.
I wonder if a better strategy might be for Charis to threaten Desnarian and/or Dohlar with an invasion. It seems that rather than only trying to counter direct attack, threaten the invading rulers that their land might be hit from behind. It might make them pause, or better yet, second guess themselves on how much resource commitments they are willing to make toward invading Siddarmark and protecting their rears. I don’t think either of those rulers haven’t heard about how successful Charis’ invasion of Corisande went, and that has to factor into their thinking.
So don’t just focus on how to defend against an invasion of Siddarmark, but take on an offensive posture against the attackers and give them something to guess about as well …
Daemon, invading Corisande was a much easier matter than invading Desnar and/or Dohlar.
The “mainland” nations have a much larger population than the entire Charian Empire (including Corisande).
@27. I have this strange suspicion that the Raven Lords “not granting permission” is absolutely irrelevant to anything. “The Fence” is likely more intended to keep bandits or raiders out of Chisholm than Chisholm out of the Raven Lands. Perhaps those “Lands” are about to be annexed by the EoC. ;)
@30. I was kind of curious about one little thing. Exactly where are Desnair’s gold mines? :)
@30/Drak. My suggestion was to offer a subterfuge, not necessarily invade. It seems (for example) Desnarian is at least half coastline and most cities near ports, and given that Charis really does “rule” on the seas, why wouldn’t the Desnarian take the threat seriously? To the point, invading doesn’t imply conquering. Knowing that your enemy is planning to target your coastal cities should be enough. Doesn’t matter if there are more people and/or more soldiers on the defending side. The nice thing about being on the offensive is that you get to choose your target, and the defender can’t be everywhere at once unless they spread themselves too thinly to be effective against any given attack. Again, the idea is to make (if nothing else, for example) Desnarian think twice about committing a lot of resources when it could leave itself vulnerable to “imminent” attack … especially because there is so much of it exposed.
I realize it is early in this dance, and it could be that Caleb and co. will look more to being on the offensive soon. I suspect they already know that to win they can’t just play defensive against the invasion of Siddarmark. They should leverage offensive tactics to force the opposition into a more cautious behavior and spread their resources.
As you say, this is the mainland, and the Empire of Charis doesn’t seem to have the necessary manpower at current to succeed on a straight head on fight. So I would expect Caleb to proceed with a strategy to prevent the opposition from concentrating their forces.
Daemon, that’s a different matter. [Smile]
Just remember that Desnair and Dohlar would be in “big trouble” if they pulled their troops (or just some of them) out of Siddarmark without Church approval.
I’m not sure that there’s anything Caleb & Greyghor Stohnar could pull off that would convince the Gof4 that Desnair and Dohlar were in danger.
Of course, DW has fooled me before. [Wink]
@ 31 I doubt it is irrelevant, it probably wont stop the ICA unless the army’s leaders allow it to. Much can be done to hamper enemy forces aside from attacking them, just refusing supplies and trying to get the food away from their path before they get to it would hurt.
@35 Anthony, apparently you haven’t seen the population figures for Raven’s Land. ;)
The army will be bringing along all of their own food in any case–I doubt there is enough food along the path to make any difference whatsoever.
@34/Drak. Yeah. Just a thought. I can hope can’t I? :-)
I have a question about the Dohlarian army. According to Off Armageddon Reef:
“Those galleons might have more artillery than any of his ships did, but his galleys each carried enormous crews, buttressed by heavy drafts on the finest Regiments of the Royal Army.”
I wonder how many of his experienced army personnel survived the battle? I’m guessing about 250 soldiers on each galley, or about 40,000, and on a guess about 10,000 survived. In other words, they lost about 30,000 experienced soldiers. With a population of 97 million, and a muscle-based economy, how large an army would they maintain?
Is that a significant fraction of the Dohlarian army? Given the priority for the Navy, how much have they rebuilt? Or, put another way, how good is the cadre and command staff for the Dohlarian army? And what impact would that have on the army invading Siddarmark?
— Bob G
There is the little matter to of Gorath Bay being burned to the ground with Ronyld in it, so you could probably make a plausibe threat in Dohlar’s direction. Even if they do nothing, sailing close or taking out Thirsk would cause severe anxiety.
We are assuming that the empire generals are all Clareyks, and that the Church folks are more like Baron Barcor. Let’s hope Cayleb, Merlin, Eastshare have weeded out their incompetents.
@31 Annexation is inevitable of course, but I’m trying not to be tacky… ;)
@35 The EoC IS trying to be the good guys all the time, so expect the velvet glove before they have to use the fist inside it. Things would be so much more PEACEFUL if the long trek across lands that Chisholm hasn’t considered worth conquering weren’t interrupted by say – occasional sniper fire, or animals being stolen/stampeded in the dark. An annoyed hornet can’t kill you, but I’d have a tough time sleeping with one in the room…
@36 Yes, it would be just a WEE bit arrogant to tell an army nearly three times your country’s size “Uh, golly, we wish you wouldn’t walk on our grass…” (And not even the GOOD kind!) Bleek!
Temple Loyalists and Rebels in Siddarmark, a Dohlarian invasion force, a Desnairian invasion force, and a major invasion/backup from the Temple/Border-Lands against what Stohnar has remaining loyal (knowing he will be riddled with traitors) and what the EoC can get to Haven in a reasonable amount of time.
And Harchong has yet to be rung in. Maybe Clyntahn will just have them attack to the west rather than join in the dogpile that Siddarmark is becoming.
/Rob
So, I’ve gotta know… “Swaying cask after cask of preserved fish, pork, beef, and dragon…” What does dragon taste like? Chicken? :D
After really looking at the canal system, I see two places that are crucial to the Charis and Siddermark; Alyksberg and Icewind. If the CoGA lose control of these 2 areas, the invasion forces cannot be provisioned from outside Siddermark. I find it interesting that the two schwerpunkts of this phase of the war require the ICN to reach. Icewind is requires the ICN to drop of some of Kynt’s forces to secure. Alyksberg will be the true target of the destruction of Gorath.
The ICN sets out to flatten Gorath. They carry some ICA troops, but are really coming to dispense justice to Raynahld. Depending on when they get there, they will focus on the southern part of Dohlar burning every port city around Gorath. Raynahld draws forces away from northern Dohlar and southern Siddermark towards Gorath. Just before the harvest, the ICN goes up to the Bay of Bess and destroy Dairnyth. Instead of leaving, the ICA detachment takes the the Dairnyth-Alyksberg canal and attacks Alyksberg. They could probably use their marine assault craft to ferry people and equiptment through he canal if the local supply of barges are insufficient.
I believe that the broad startegy will incorporate taking those two places. When that will happen depends on the pace DW wants to tell this part of the story.
@43. The odds are that “dragon” is “fodder”. For other dragons.
IIRC the domesticated dragons on Safehold aren’t the meat-eating ones.
@EVERYONE – Whew, nobody noticed I expected that the EoC needed THREE waves of transport to move the IAC to Siddarmark – although three IS more useful, there’s no sense in getting yourself cut up in penny-packets. (Three mere 130,000 man, ultra-modern, armed to the teeth penny-packets that is…) Bleek!
So now that I have to pick two, the first step is still carrying all the artillery, powder, and shot that half of the IAC will need to Rollings, while enough transports to carry half the IAC are headed to the rendezvous point in Chisholm/TLotRL (Note the IAC are not NEEDED in Rollings, so better to take them where they are needed.) Take Superman with half the IAC, sail to Rollings where their weapons ships are waiting, then sail to Ranshair (Northland Province,) and load the army on barges (A bit of help from the “New weapons that shall not be named” here would be EXTREMELY useful!) Send the transports back for the other half of the ICA.
Sail upriver to the Guaranak-Ice Ashe Canal, then crush Guaranak, the capital of the rebellious Mountaincross Province. Note: They COULD accomplish the same thing by landing further west in Icewind and clean out the opposition as they pass through, but they’re in a race to beat the AoG.
By golly, it’s just a short jaunt up the Guaranak-Sylmahn canal to the Slymahn gap, where an army of TLs has been trying to break through since winter. We have Corisande all over again, with the enemy troops trapped in a long, narrow valley, and the good guys blocking both ends. Block the gap and move south, crushing the TLs, who are now without supplies. I don’t expect a lot of prisoners, but put them in the press gangs raising crops. Get this done BEFORE the AoG arrive! Send some reinforcements to Glacierheart, mostly AoS troops.
Send the artillery, powder, and shot for the 2nd half of the ICA to Siddar City.
Pick up the second wave of the IAC and transport it to Siddar City (commanded by Eastshare,) where Cayleb has been signing alliance papers, handing out flintlock rifles, and perhaps some rifled artillery to the AoS. Those weapons quickly make their way to the Sylmahn gap, which stiffens the backbones of the defenders there and helps Superman win. Give the troops the powder and shot they need, there won’t be a friendly port where they’re going.
Cayleb jumps aboard the fleet which heads for the South March Lands. Cayleb is wise enough to let his professional soldiers run the army, so Eastshare gets to feel important while Cayleb, who outranks him gets to direct the campaign. The ICN has a “near idolatrous faith” in Cayleb, and after Corisande the IAC isn’t far behind. He takes out Teshmar with the aid of the weapons who shall not be named, and the enemy screams “OH DEAR! There’s a massive IAC force right by the border of Dohlar cutting off supplies to the Dohlaran and Desnairian invaders!”
Now Cayleb has lots of fun destroying the enemy logistics as the IAC heads upriver, takes Alkyberg, cutting off supplies from BOTH of the canals Dohlar and Desnair are counting on. Send some troops up the Dairnyth-Alkyber canal, conquer Dairnyth, and the Harchongese suddenly lose the port they intended to use for all troops and supplies brought by ship from the Gulf of Dohlar. (And if you think King Rahnayld is gonna let them march through HIS country, you’ve been drinking something you shouldn’t!)
Cayleb gets to teach the Desnarian cavalry that they’re obsolete and King Rahnayld that Dohlar is sorely over-matched and that YOU DO NOT TURN POWS OVER TO THE INQUISITION! Since the rivers and canals don’t freeze in the south, Cayleb can continue to entertain himself all winter, capturing enemy supplies, sinking Harchongese ships who land at Dairnyth, and blowing away the Harchongese army, which will now be forced to move through Silkiah, only to emerge right next to Theshmar – which is controlled by the ICA. Turkey shoot! Cayleb can be easily resupplied by ship, his troops have only three nodes to defend, and the enemy HAS to come to him or STARVE. (Dohlar and Desnair will actually be forced to RETREAT to face him for lack of food and supplies.) Plus his (weapons which shall not be named) can run wild all year long this far south.
Expect him to be reinforced by whatever AoS forces survived the battles in the South March Lands, so he’ll probably have 250,000+ men equipped with breech loading rifles, rifled flintlocks, and rifled artillery. (Plus several of the weapons which shall not be named!) That’s enough to DECIMATE the armies of Dohlar and Desnair, and the ill-equipped and probably incompetently led Harchongese, who may just serve as fanatical cannon fodder trying to overrun IAC positions. (But remember, quantity has a quality all its own, even if the drafted serfs are only carrying pikes.) Time to introduce the organ gun, the gatling gun, or something like it.
Meanwhile, up north Green Valley and the freed-up AoS forces stomp out any remaining resistance in Mountaincross and Hildermoss provinces and get ready for the arrival of the AoG. As long as the good guys retain control of the Guarnak-Sylmahn canal, they can be resupplied easily. If they have to fall back, they can hunker down in the Sylmahn gap indefinitely.
To win the war, they need control of Five Forks, which cuts off access to the canal network leading into eastern Siddarmark (Which is under Siddarmark control at this point) and leads west through most of the border states and into the Temple Lands themselves. Since this is as far north as Zion, those canals will freeze solid during winter and the fighting season might end with Green Valley holding Five Forks and the AoG stuck outside it and having to move supplies by land to move anywhere. Neither side can be easily resupplied during the winter. Note: Control of nearby Sairmeet would cut off the last northern route to Glacierheart, and effectively stall the AoG completely in the north. The closest town that would block BOTH routes is Tramos. Lest we forget all those nice ROADS through Siddarmark, Superman also needs to control Waymeet.
If Superman didn’t care about any AoG who had already passed Tramos, he could ignore the entire campaign I’ve laid out for him, go through Icewind, clearing it of opposition, and sit on Tramos, blocking off all AoG shipping south or east. His supply lines would be relatively short once a ship arrives at Icewind. But a LOT of bad things might be happening behind him, Tramos isn’t a big town to settle in for a Zion-like winter, and any (weapons who must not be named) sent to him would be sitting ducks in the ice. Remember all the nice roads through Siddarmark – the AoG aren’t required to use canals all the time! (And clearly won’t)
This leaves only the canals leading into Glacierheart as an invasion route. Since Glacierheart is friendly territory, the reinforcements from Green Valley, the re-equipped AoS forces in the area, and a few of (the weapons which shall not be named) may be able to stop any AoG forces sent that way. The Daivyn river leading into Glacierheart from the west flows through Cliff Peak, (controlled by Stohnar, though not for long!) but even though the AoG will conquer it as they move east, a (weapon who shall not be named) or two along with the restive populace can sabotage/steal/destroy enemy supplies moving on the river.
As long as the AoS controls Ice lake, which (weapons which shall not be named) based there during the summer would ensure, all supplies for any AoG force attempting to bypass it must move by land, which should stop the AoG short of Tairys for the winter and may even starve it. Plus the AoS troops forced to retreat from Cliff Peak will bolster the defenders of Glacier Heart, who will be sent enough supplies to last the winter and have a relatively short front to defend. Sending someone from the inner-circle to coordinate troop movements would be a big help. (HINT! The inner-circle needs a LOT more military commanders in it!)
Glacierheart can also be reached via Fort Darymahn in the South March Lands, but since it’s almost a direct path with no connections until the Branath Canal reaches Glacierborn Lake, it can probably be safely ignored. (Unless a bunch of TL militia in the SMLs decide to use it, which would have them moving north – oh my…) It’s only accessible by sea, and other than a few galleons in Desnair and Geyra, there are no non-EoC ships on the east coasts of Howard or Haven. (So this may be the unexpected route of invasion…)
Once they’ve delivered all the troops, the ICN will have relatively little to do except convoy duty, so expect a large percentage of it to do an Iythria on Geyra, Desnair, and every port around Howard until they take over the Gulf of Dohlar, probably in the next book. It WOULD be nice to take care of that itchy little problem called Gorath, and that all-too clever guy guarding it named Thirsk, but the MWW wants some boats to play with in the next book.
I haven’t addressed where Merlin is going to be. A snippet has him in Siddar City in the summer, which would have him separated from Cayleb – which may undermine my whole scenario. I expected him to play Abraim Zhevons quite a bit and add another seijin identity or two, as the seijin network needs to be expanded so he can flit back and forth using the skimmer and not waste time “traveling.”
There’s also that “surprise” the MWW has us all lathered up about that Merlin is musing over as he looks out on the streets of Siddar City. I haven’t addressed that either, although if I got my timing right, on the northern campaign, I’d guess it’s a red herring. (Unless the unguarded Branath Canal route has a nasty surprise in store…) But since I’ve only been right about the MWW’s “hints” twice before, I’m not going to wager even a virtual beverage on what he has in mind.
My northern strategy needs some tweaking if the AoG get to the Sylmahn Gap before Superman can – though if he can cut off their supplies and force them to battle him, he’d win. The AoS MUST keep the gap blocked if that happens. After that the northern strategy should still work as outlined. The one position he can’t allow himself to get trapped in is blocking the gap with the AoG marching up behind him.
Those are my guesses. Feel free to reveal all the holes in my strategy! ;) Bleek!
@ Nimitz: Not necessarily true. The transport is the transport. Cayleb and Charleyan can send their supplies (shot, powder, etc) from Tellesburg. Or rather, whatever powder mill, or Howsmyn’s works ar necessary. All they have to do is meet them there. Matter of fact, come to think of it, I’d expect Tarot to be a staging point/depot for supplies.
Interesting. As poor as Gorjah was when his kingdom was blockaded, his people have to be absolutely bustling now.
#47 Have you been looking at maps again?
From the tone of your post, I’d venture that the future doesn’t appear as bleek as it once did.
Well I HAVE made a bunch of rather optimistic assumptions. Plus I’m probably not reading the mileage in the north properly. We were assuming the curvature of the planet meant the distances were going to be shorter. RFC just said he’s going to treat them just like at the equator, since “they may not be accurate (on an imaginary world!) but at least they’ll be consistent.” Bleek!
I probably overestimated the number of weapons who shall not be named that are available as well, so I’d guess Superman doesn’t get to play with them, he’ll only get to see them when they help break open the Sylmahn gap. Then those weapons head for Glacierheart, then south to join the blockade of Dohlar/Silkiah/Bay of Bess for the winter. Cayleb gets to play with the rest of them in the south year-round, so as history has taught us, “it’s good to be the king!” (Ok, Emperor…) ;)
If the Eoc & AoS can do what I’ve outlined though, the AoG will get killed, then starve, while Dohlar & Desnair will get killed or starve, and Harchong will be cut down like ripe wheat. (Using the latest Charisian Reapers!) Bleek! Bleek!