Midst Toil And Tribulation – Snippet 13
April
Year of God 896
.I.
Tellesberg Palace,
City of Tellesberg,
Kingdom of Old Charis,
Empire of Charis
“I hope they don’t get hammered too hard crossing The Anvil,” Cayleb Ahrmahk said somberly.
The Charisian Emperor stood looking out across Howell Bay from the tower window with one arm wrapped around his Empress. His right hand rested on the point of her hip, holding her close, and her head nestled against the side of his chest. Her eyes were as dark and somber as his, but she shook her head.
“They’re all experienced captains,” she said, watching the thicket of sails head away from the Tellesberg wharves. There were over sixty merchant galleons in that convoy, escorted by two full squadrons of war galleons and screened by a dozen of the Imperial Charisian Navy’s fleet, well armed schooners, and twenty-five more galleons from Erastor would join it as it passed through the Sea of Charis. It was the third convoy to sail from Tellesberg already — the sixth, overall, counting those which had sailed from Emerald and Tarot, as well — and it was unlikely they were going to be able to assemble yet another in time to be much help. Besides, there simply weren’t enough foodstuffs in storage in Charis, Emerald, or Tarot to fill another convoy’s holds. It was a miracle they’d found as much as they had; counting this convoy, they’d sent well over five hundred galleons, carrying a hundred and forty thousand tons of food and over a quarter million tons of fodder and animal feed. It was, frankly, an almost inconceivable effort for a technology limited to sail power and small, wooden-hulled vessels, but it still hadn’t been enough, for there’d been a limit to how much preserved and fresh food was available. Indeed, prices in the three huge islands had skyrocketed as the Crown and Church poured every mark they could into buying up every scrap of available food and sent it off to starving Siddarmark. The cost had been staggering, but they’d paid it without even wincing, for they had no choice. Not when she, Cayleb, and their allies could actually see the hundreds of thousands of people starving in northern Siddarmark.
“They’re all experienced,” she repeated. “They know what the weather’s like this time of year. And your sailing instructions made it clear they were to assume the worst.”
“There’s a difference between knowing ‘what the weather’s like’ and knowing you’re headed directly into one of the worst gales in the last twenty years.” Cayleb’s voice was as grim as his expression. “I’ll lay you whatever odds you ask that we’re going to lose at least some of those ships, Sharley.”
“I think you may be being overly pessimistic,” a voice said over the transparent plug each of them wore in one ear. “I understand why, but let’s not borrow any guilt until it’s actually time to feel it, Cayleb.”
“I should’ve delayed their sailing. Just three or four days — maybe a full five-day. Just long enough for The Anvil to clear.”
“And explain it how, Cayleb?” Sharleyan asked softly. “We can track weather fronts — do you want to explain to anyone else how we manage that? And without some sort of explanation, how could we justify delaying that food when everyone in the Empire — this side of Chisholm, anyway — knows how desperately it’s needed?”
“For that matter, Cayleb,” Merlin Athrawes said over the com plugs, “it is desperately needed. I hate to say it, but any lives we lose to wind and weather are going to be enormously outweighed by the lives we save from starvation. And” — his deep voice turned gentle — “are the lives of Charisian seamen worth more than the lives of starving Siddarmarkian children? Especially when some of the children in question are Charisians themselves? You may be Emperor, but you’re not God. Do you have the right to order them not to sail? Not to risk their lives? What do you think the crews of those galleons would’ve said if you’d asked them whether they wanted to sail, even if they’d known they were going to encounter the worst storm The Anvil has to offer, knowing how badly the food they’re carrying is needed at the other end? Human beings have faced far worse dangers for far worse reasons.”
“But they didn’t get to choose. They –”
Cayleb cut himself off and waved his left hand in an abrupt chopping gesture. Sharleyan sighed and turned to press her face against his tunic, wrapping both of her own arms around him, and they stood that way for several seconds. Then it was his turn to inhale deeply and turn resolutely away from the window and those slowly shrinking rectangles and pyramids of canvas.
The turn brought him face-to-face with a tall silver-haired man, with a magnificent beard and large, sinewy hands, wearing an orange-trimmed white cassock. The dovetailed ribbon at the back of his priest’s cap was also orange, and a ruby ring of office glittered on his left hand.
“I notice you didn’t have anything to say about my little moodiness,” the emperor told him, and he smiled faintly.
“I’ve known you since you were a boy, Cayleb,” Archbishop Maikel Staynair replied. “Unlike Sharley and Merlin, I learned long ago that the only way to deal with these self-flagellating humors of yours is to wait you out. Eventually even you figure out you’re being harder on yourself than you would’ve been on anyone else and we can get on to more profitable uses of our time.”
“You always have such a compassionate and supportive way of dealing with me in my hour of need, Your Eminence,” Cayleb said sardonically, and Staynair chuckled.
“Would you really prefer for me to get all weepy-eyed instead of kicking you — respectfully, of course — in the arse?”
“It would at least have the virtue of novelty,” Cayleb replied, his tone dry, and the archbishop chuckled again. Then he cocked one eyebrow at the imperial couple and gestured at the small conference table set under one of the skylights set into the tower chamber’s sloping roof.
“I suppose so,” Cayleb sighed, and escorted Sharleyan across to it. He pulled out her chair for her, then waited until Staynair had seated himself before taking his own place.
“It’ll be nice when you get home, Merlin. I can’t throttle you properly when you’re so far away,” he remarked to the empty air as he sat, and it was Merlin’s turn to chuckle.
“I’ll see you tomorrow,” he promised, “and you can throttle away to your heart’s content. Or try to, anyway. And the trip’s been worth it. We’re never going to get over the hole Mahndrayn’s left, but Captain Rahzwail’s turning out to be pretty impressive himself. Even more impressive than I’d expected, really. In fact, I wouldn’t be too surprised if he turns out to be a candidate for the inner circle in the not too distant.”
“Rushing it a bit, aren’t you?” Cayleb asked quizzically, and Merlin — perched like a cross legged tailor atop one of King’s Harbor Citadel’s crenellations — shrugged.
“I didn’t suggest telling him tomorrow, Cayleb,” he pointed out mildly. “I’m simply saying I think he has the . . . resiliency and flexibility to take it in stride. And given his new post, it would certainly be useful.”
“Not as useful as telling Ahlfryd would be.” Sharleyan’s voice was unwontedly sharp, and Cayleb looked at her. “I understand all the reasons for not telling him,” the empress went on in that same edged tone, “but we’ve told others who even the Brethren agreed were greater risks than he’d ever be, and there’s not a more trustworthy man in the entire Empire!”
“Besides which, he’s your friend,” Staynair said gently. Her head whipped around, anger flickering in her eyes, but Staynair met them with his normal calm, unflurried gaze.
“That has nothing to do with my estimate of how useful it would be to have him fully integrated into the inner circle, Maikel,” she said, her tone flat.
“No, but it has quite a bit to do with how guilty you feel for not having told him.” Staynair gave his head a slight shake. “And how disloyal you feel for not having managed to convince the Brethren to trust him with the information.”
The empress’ eyes bored hotly into his for another handful of seconds before they fell. She looked down at her own slender, shapely hands, so tightly folded on the table before her that their knuckles had whitened, and the archbishop reached out to lay one of his own far larger hands atop them.
“I understand, Sharley,” he told her softly. “But don’t forget, Bryahn was his friend, too, and it was Bryahn who recommended against telling him. And you know why, too, don’t you?”
Sharleyan never looked up, but, after a moment, she nodded ever so slightly, and Staynair smiled sadly at the crown of her head.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up having to be told and reacts just as badly as predicted.
Seems like having to kill him if it goes badly would make the Empress think twice.
So besides being Bruce Wayne’s butler, -I hurried thru 27 pages of the index and about 900 names to no avail-
Who is Ahlfryd?
140k tons of food at one pound per person per day is food for 3.5 million people for 80 days. WOW!
3.5 million should provide 1% to active armed forces IMO. 35,000 man armed force plus ICA to beat down Sword of Schueler.
@2 Admiral Sir Ahlfryd Hyndryk, Baron Seamount, “Senior Gunnery Expert” ICN.
Cuold you remind me please when it was decided that Baron Seamount shouldn’t be told?
@5: I think that was decided several books back. I seem to remember reading something about him ‘diving into the book collection and not being heard from for several months’. I don’t have my books here to check though.
@3. However, i believe a starvation ration (ie, the person is on the very border of starvation and can last for a long time) is generally conidered 2 pounds a day and a survival ration (will be hungry, loose wieght and may not have much energy but not damaging to overall health) is conidered to be 3 pounds a day. It’s also important to remember that however much people need food, there is going to be problems with spoilage. So i’d say its enough to feed about 1 million people for 80 days. Of course, its going to be going to more than a million people as many will be able to find at least some food from other sources. On the other hand, the population of Siddarmark is 130 million and I think the areas which stayed loyal to stohnar are the most populous. Also, refugees are pouring in from temple loyalist areas. So he’s got to feed 50 million, minimum. Also, even post SoS he has approximately (**SPOILER**)400,000 soldiers and 500,000 (**SPOILER**)militia to feed
@5and 6, this was discussed at the end of AMF. Lock Island felt that it was a bad idea because a) he’s doing exactly what merlin weants for sefehold now, he’s becoming inventive b) he’d dive into OWL’s library and not emerge for several months c)he’d push to introduce better tech TOO hard d) he would want to reveal the truth – and he might spill it too early.
Weight of what matters in the food supply. A pound of dried rice and dried beans, and a pound of beer are rather remote.
Indeed, a pound of raw dried rice and beans, after cooking, is someplace near 2000 calories, which is about what a typical adult uses. I am more than a bit surprised that the fodder is not grown locally.
@9 and 10, while true, rice is hardly standard. |Its pretty much the best staple there is for calorie to weight ratio. And I think weber himself said he was using 3 pounds a day as a standard ration. And as to fodder, I’d say it usially is but remember that safehold is not fully terraformed and if the siddarmarkians are forced to choose between food and animal fodder they’ll choose animal fodder. Charis may be sending so much becuase they’ve got it to spare, they’ve got no other food to send and sending it can’t hurt.
Siddarmark is occupied country. Distribution of the food donated by Charis will be extremely problematic.
@12 – Arthur
Yes, it will be problematic, but that will make for a more interesting story. :-)
Also, I’m assuming that the distribution will only happen in the areas still under control of Stohner and troops loyal to Stohner.
@11 Jim, you are probably right. I think this sets up the logistics war rather nicely. Most of Siddermark will be stripped of food and no army can live off the land. The war will be fought along the canals, with the army that can fight best furthest from those canals having the decided advantage. As DW is want to quote (Nathan Bedford Forrest) “Whoever gets there firstest with the mostest”.
I wonder if this is set-up for some of Merlin’s earliest innovations? Abacus’ and arabic numerals helping quartermasters organize troop movements more quickly and eficiently. Some utilization of steam engines that were approved last book. This war may be won by the side that doesn’t make a mistake. What that mistake may be is still a question. I think it will revolve around not being able to calculate or transport sufficient reserve provisions or munitions. Cayleb abd Merlin recognize that mistake early and hoist the AoG upon their own petard.
@14 I think that the relative inaccuracy of the logistics systems used by the CoG may well provide a number of problems in keeping troops supplied. If they (as opposed to Charis and Siddarmark) have not switched over to Arabic numerals, can you imagine the problems with just “doing the math”, let alone all the problems with ensuring that the food and supplies are distributed on an as-needed basis? And one way to make that work well is to place storage depots on a waterway, so that in the case of screw-ups, the materials can be shipped in quickly. Add ironclads to block the shipments and even bombard the depots, and I wonder if they can actually keep things effectively supplied.
I have visions of the head of the college sharing spreadsheets and graphical displays with OWL, and looking at where the CoG forces are running out of supplies. Its a lot easier to disable a division of troops by cutting off food and ammo via ironclads than to actually fight them – but that begs a different issue.
What happens when EoC captures starving enemy forces? Do they let them starve (probably immoral), divert food from the Siddarmarkians (which reduces the food available to them), ship them to POW camps in the islands (which diverts resources, but they will have the required sealift) or strip them of their weapons and military equipment and let them go? I tend to favor the last, except for experienced/competent commanders and non-coms. After all, killing or capturing enemy forces actually eases CoG logistics. But, you don’t want to let enemy troops go only to have to fight them again.
— Bob G
Ahlfryd seems like another candidate for the “Inner VR Circle”, should anything happen to him. ;)
# 4 Richard K –Thanks– Right there on page 574 of HFaF
Also, I must wonder…as proto-Special Forces teams, just hopw many “Scout-snipers” does Charis have?
The ‘scortched earth policy’ Clyntahn’s loyal Siddermarkian minions have implemented is certainly going to come back to haunt the invading armies of the CoGA. Excellent points from others regarding the logistics and the advantange EoC has over the CoGA with Arabic numerals (on the assumption no one outside of EoC’s sphere of influence has adopted them). I fear only Duchairn will realize and appreciate the logistic nightmare of supplying massive armies on multiple fronts over hostile terrain. This will certainly widen the split between him and Clyntahn and I wonder if this will cause the Grand Inquistor to suspect that Duchairn is ‘sabotazing’ the Churchs’ war effort and have him begin the process of having Duchairn removed. Then again Maigwair might be the more likely target of Clyntahns’ ire as the advances of the armies of the CoGA begin to bog down and suffer massive defeats inflicted by smaller Siddermarkian military forces backed by contingents of the EoC.
@18 I don’t know either, but I can image the carnage and confusion a dozen or so platoon size units could create behind CoGA lines if they target logistic supply lines ‘choke-points’ and staging depots.
@13 distribution of food may happen only in areas under Stohner in practice but it would be a great propaganda coup to at least offer it to the rest of the country. “The CoG sent fire & destruction and wouldn’t let the CoC send food for your starving children.” Sort of like the way the US offered Marshall Plan aid to ALL of Europe knowing full well that Stalin wouldn’t let his puppets take it…
I don’t see why the canals should be a factor. Canals mean locks (I have never seen a canal without locks-there is no such thing). Without functioning locks canals don’t function. Damage or destroy the locks and you can ignore the canals as a transport system.
PS Don’t kill any lock keepers. They are the ones who know how to build and repair them.
Robert, a few thoughts.
The Writ has “commanded” that the canals/locks must be protected from harm. Even though, it has happened already, it is still something that Mainland Safeholders think “that shouldn’t be done”.
Also if the canals/locks are behind “enemy lines”, it will not be easy to get raiding parties close enough to permanently destroy/damage the locks.
While Merlin could easily do it, that would fall under “no evil miracles” on his part.
Finally, *if* you were going to do this sort of thing, *you* would kill the lock keepers *because* they’d be the people who would repair the damage that you caused.
@21 and 22. Ah, but if the canals were destroyed, the invasion could not happen. There is no way an army of any size could carry enough food over land without a canal. The amount of fodder the draft animals would eat as a percentage of total weight carried would reach 100% at about 500 miles. At which point the wagon is empty and animal has no food to continue even if there was food to move. They need to canals efficiency to move enough food to feed a fast moving large army.
There needs to be a reason DW can trott out for the canals surviving or there would be no possible way for large forces to move quickly and fight in interesting land battles. I find the limiting factors DW created to ensure the interesting battles very believable. Strip the countryside with an induced famine and then prevent the destruction of the only means of allowing the battle to happen; the canals. These contraints allow for the menu of options available to either side to be a mite predictable, but also makes the ability to overcome those limitations that much more devestating.
I shall be looking at every bit of obvious trivia in the book and seeing how can it be made into an advantage. He’ll drop those hints and I mean to find them as early as possible.
Bother! 4th sentence should read “..to continue unless there was more food to move waiting.”
I find the ‘500 miles from depot’ estimate a bit enthusiastic. However, suppose it is true.
Horse A hauls whatever 100 miles. It uses 0.4 of the load for itself, counting its return trip, and 0.6 is dropped off. It makes 5/3 trips, and a full load is available at depot A. The next Horse hauls things another hundred miles, and per trip of horse A 0.36 of a load is dropped off. For the third hundred miles, horse C does the haulage, and for each unit amount put in at the front end 0.216 appears at the far end. We are now approaching the limit of the distances seen in European campaigns.
@23 The army is marching. It moves perhaps 15 miles a day, 4 days of five, and on the fifth it rests and bakes its bread. To cover 2000 miles, it will need close to six or seven months.
@25, horses B and C have to be moved to their staging points, and then stabled (and fed) at those intermediate locations on an ongoing basis.
The “Cape Cod Canal” is a canal without locks.
As is the Suez Canal.
Well as George has so lequently described, without canals the campaign turns into a border war. The invasion will take years as depots gradually expand into Siddermark. Not very interesting at all.
@26, you’re right which is why this kind of arrangement ends up with a triangle – the first stage requires 4 horses, the second stage 2 and the last stage 1. You end up needing a lot of animals if you’re doing this for a great distance, as for each stage you need to double the number of horses/draft animals. At first it doesn’t seem so bad – until you realise that for a 10 stage (1000 miles by george’s numbers) distance, you would need 2047 horses. All to supply that one horse for the last 100 miles. Except you would need more due to them getting ill and dying etc. And you would have problems with fodder spoiling. So any distance greater than a few hundred miles quickly becomes impractical, even by relay.
Given all these food problems, I would say its a great time for some sudden innovations in fishing technology. Fishing could provide large amounts of food at both ends of the supply chain.
Plus, Merlin could undetectably game any sort of fishing system. He can herd fish underwater in any number of completely undetectable ways. This could result in massively productive large net fishing systems. It could also increase the effectiveness of old fashioned line fishing by increasing the local density of fish.
Would he have to use the skimmer, or could decent numbers of high tech gizmo’s be manufactured and dropped off in relevant areas?
Do they have the equivalent of whale beaching on this planet…….
@15 PLEASE don’t discuss spoilers here, this is a group to swap ideas but not ruin surprises. The MWW has been kind enough to tell those of us who WANT to know about future technologies, but that’s why he called the thread on the Weber Forums “MASSIVE SPOILER about next book hardware.”
Concering Roman vs. Arabic numerals…
In AOR when Cayleb was briefing the Charisian R&D & selected manufactures, he said “Some of what we’re going to be talking about today, like what Seijin Merlin calls ‘Arabic numerals’ and an ‘abacus,’ are going to have to SPREAD WIDELY to be of any use to us. As such, their advantages are bound to be recognized, and they’re bound to be adopted by others VERY QUICKLY.”
That was over five years ago, and the simplified mathematics and methods of calculation that Arabic numerals and the abacus allow have probably spread worldwide by now. (Ok, maybe not to those traditionalists in Harchong, but EVERYWHERE else.) We know Charisian merchants were using them extensively back in AMF, and were still trading worldwide for a year or two after Arabic numerals were introduced – and post-embargo with Siddarmark and Silkiah (and wherever they could smuggle) for the past couple of years. To simplify bills of lading, accounting, etc. it’s likely the mainland realms switched to Arabic numerals as quickly as they realized the advantages. Siddarmark certain would have, as would Silkiah.
The AoG and the CoGA are probably using Arabic numerals and the abacus as well, so no advantage there unfortunately. You can bet Zion got an abacus YEARS ago, and I’d bet Duchairn and his clerks are using Arabic numerals, so the entire church probably is by now. Paityr Wylsynn may have had to approve them as intendant, so they may have been part of the innovations the Go4 demanded he review again when Archbishop Erayk Dynnys arrived for his pastoral visit back in OAR. (I scanned all 5 books and found no textev confirming this though.)
Starvation and food distribution…
Since this convoy is crossing the Anvil, all of the food is being sent to northern Siddarmark – I expect Siddar City is going to be the focal point for unloading and distribution, since it’s the largest port in Siddarmark. (And this snippet noted starvation in NORTHERN Siddarmark.)
The maps we have don’t show much detail, so we don’t know of any other northern ports in Siddarmark, although there must be some. The survivors of the NoG fled to Siddar City after the Battle of Tarot Gulf to sit out the winter. Since they clearly weren’t welcome, it’s probable that it’s northern-most major port that stays ice-free in the winter – that we know about.
The southern provinces – Trokhanos, Malitar, Windmoor, and parts of Southguard and and South March Lands are PROBABLY close enough to the equator to be raising/harvested another crop now, if the fighting allows the farmers to safely till the fields and they haven’t had to eat their seed corn. So the southern region of Siddarmark might be Ok, and if food distribution is still intact, parts of Markan, New Province, and possibly Transhar may be receiving food from their neighboring provinces to the south. (Again, the snippet said hundreds of thousands were starving up north, but nothing about the south, although Southguard was described as having a cold, rainy winter.)
So the main struggle against starvation is in the snow covered north, especially in the interior. Places like Glacierheart, Westmarch, Cliff Peak, Shiloh, Hildermoss, Icewind (especially since it held for Stohnar,) and northern coastal provinces like Northland, New Northland, Midhold, and Rollings are probably in trouble. The last two MAY have unfrozen ports to allow food deliveries, but we just don’t know. As soon as the Icewind Sea and Hsing-wu’s Passage melt, food deliveries to all coastal provinces will be possible, although some are controlled by TLs.
Delivering food inland is going to be quite difficult, as shown by Cahnyr’s group headed for Glacierheart. Getting food upriver to refugees headed east won’t be quite as bad, although it will clearly get worse the farther those deliveries go. Reaching Glacierheart with a meaningful amount may be nearly impossible, depending on the number of snow lizards and such that are available as draft animals.
Once spring arrives and the ice clears from the rivers, huge barges that can carry more food by themselves than an entire convoy of sleds will be able to solve many of the hunger problems – if the farmers of Charis, Tarot, and Zebediah can raise enough food and the fleet can DELIVER enough to make that possible. Then there’s those little details of TLs stealing, destroying, slowing, or preventing deliveries, and the invading AoG… and the ICA is going to need provisions as well.
Weather in the Anvil…
I realize the MWW knows his boats, how fast they sail, and especially distances on Safehold much better than we do, but I always thought it was at least 1300 miles from Tellesberg just to reach the Anvil – not to mention the convoy in this snippet is going to pause to pick up more ships at Erastor Bay. At the 5 mph a merchant galleon is likely to travel (at best), that’s around 130 miles per day, so the front Cayleb is worried about has at least two five-days to blow across the anvil, and ought to be gone before they arrive. But the MWW knows best… and my math is undoubtedly wrong. Can anyone correct me with textev?
I managed to predict 3 of the characters in this scene correctly, but we all expected a military discussion. Well, you can’t guess what the MWW will do more than 10% of the time… Bleek!
@30 arrrgh: You are forgetting that Safehold is a terraformed planet. I don’t really know how much of the marine biosphere is human-food-equivalent.
We do know that Krakens eat people, so the reverse may be true; but pelagics/etc. are unknown//unwritten.
And the Prince is fishing while being returned to Charis, but that may be more for sport than food-content.
Swordfish, Marlin, even sharks, squid and octopi can be eaten; but are not marine-resource staples by any means!!!!
/Rob
@27. But do they have bagels?
Yep JeffM, special receipes included in the Writ. [Wink]
@32. I was just skimming through one of the books, and commentary from Corisande indicated that the one member of the Regency Council from Wind Daughter Island (did I remember the right one?) was more worried about the Charisian warships bothering his fisherman than how many troops were on the mainland.
The Cape Cod canal has no locks. It does, however, have a very impressive current at various times of day. Welcome to driven nonlinear oscillators.
I had a crazy thought as I was skimming through a couple of the books last night. We speculated as to where (and whether) there might have been additional “St Zhernau’s”-style enclaves hidden away. I came up with an RFC style twist that might make sense. Please feel free to steal the idea and use it in his forums–but at least give me credit. ;)
One obvious candidate is Siddarmark, for various reasons. And as Siddar City is located in the “Old Province”, we can guess where Shan-Wei’s reeducated folks were originally located. However, there is one other candidate for a “St. Zhernau’s” that is brilliantly clever. C’mon, think about it–the safest place in the world. Yup–Harchong! Why not? If Charis and Siddarmark are drawing the full attention and ire of the Grand Inquisitor, what better place to hide besides the pretense of utter orthodoxy? I mean, c’mon–Clyntahn actually dismisses and discourages attempts by others to criticize Harchong because of their “piety”. So, what a better ruse to remain ignored in plain sight than have 99% of your population providing cover for you? Hello?
After all, I was shocked that there was a Harchongese Vicar in the Wylsynn’s Inner Circle in the first place. So, my conclusion is, anything is possible!
And just for fun, a practical application. Once the Charismark Army settles in against the AoG, what better if the Harchongese Army that arrives in late summer sticks the fork into the rear of the AoG at the same time? Brilliant! ;)
Jeff, I doubt that Harchong has been influenced by another Secret Brotherhood.
Remember Archbishop Maikel’s comments on the Inquisition being worried about Charis because of the influence of Saint Zherneau on Charis itself.
IMO it would be impossible for another Secret Brotherhood to have strongly influenced Harchong without the Inquistion becoming suspicious.
While there might be one there, it would not have the influence necessary to turn the Harchongese Army against the Army of God.
Now, plenty of people (including me) have wondered if Siddarmark had been influenced by a Secret Brotherhood.
Of course, the Inquistion and Clyntahn have been worried about Siddarmark.
@37, but this theoretical second brotherhood would have been established at the beginning of the world – long before Harchon developed its reputation for orthodoxy. It would be just one more possible site, not a clever place to hide.
Drak–it was just a WAG. ;)
However, I meant that a theoretical Harchongese Secret Brotherhood influenced the government in the OPPOSITE direction as Charis. After all, they are much closer to Zion, and would have to be that much more careful, so as to work and expand in the shadows.
As far as food supplies, folks…Don’t forget that once Chisholm, Zebediah and Corisande get word, there will doubtless be additional shipments. And the Siddarmarkians will need seed.
Rereading the end of an earlier book, does the Safeholdian year really go “February, April, THEN March…”?
For that matter (above) the Charisian Army will doubtless bring supplies aplenty. And Charis has a year-round growing season.
@39. That was my point. hat they CREATED the reputation for orthodoxy in an effort to hide in plain sight…
Back to the end of the Snip for a moment. Sharley is pretty pissed about Seamount. Has to be something they’ve discussed several times. I don’t think she’s used to being told no. And since Cayleb may agree with the brethern, (he doesn’t support her here) she may not be happy with him either. I think she’s pissed- cause MWW has about 5 individual references to that anger.
And if they tell Seamount and it goes really badly and they have to shoot him- how is that going to go down?
Angst ALL around.
What is the point of hiding so deeply if you became what you are hiding from? Survival, yes, but have you truly survived if you turn into the enemy yourself? Physical survival, yes.
It seems that undercover police have this problem – they are so deeply under cover that they become crooks themselves.
Back to the Secret Broterhood. My guess is that is what happened, except possibly in Sidermark. They hid so througly that they lost their identity or the Inquisition got them without realizing who they had. Of course, they could be the ancestors of Wylisn’s Cicrle. Still, I would not wait for their descendants to whip off their Zorro masks and attack the CoGA. Not like Freemasonry in RAH’s If This Goes On.
Ed, considering the “interesting” documents that the Brotherhood of Saint Zherneau had and the liklihood that other Secret Brotherhoods had such documents, I find it hard to believe that the Inquisition wouldn’t know just what they had discovered.
Now David Weber has stated that *if* the Inquisition had discovered such a Secret Brotherhood that Clyntahn would know about it and would have used the knowledge of such a group of followers of Shan-wei had existed against the Reform Movement.
On the other hand, it is possible that possible Secret Brotherhoods “died still-born” when the guardians of the “interesting” documents destroyed them when they realized the contents without informing the Inquisition.
I won’t want to be the Abbot who informed the Inquisition that his monastery was founded by “followers of Shan-wei”. [Wink]
@37, 38, 43, 44 I found an interesting statement during a reread of “By Heresies Distressed”, page 34, “although no one in Siddarmark was even aware that a place called “Old Earth” had ever existed” leads me to believe that Siddarmark has NO Saint Zherneau in operation.
Zherneau the saint, was provided with a history of the Federation. I would expect all enclaves to have been provided with similar documentation from the Alexandaria Library. Hence no active cell exists in Siddarmark.
Who said/thought that? It could be the truth as far as that individual is aware, but even Merlin will miss things (like St. Zherneau’s). After all these centuries it might not even be possible to track down any other secret groups.
I think there is another reason supporting the idea that there are no more secret brotherhoods. If you recall when Merlin/Nimue was introduced to the Brotherhood of St. Zherneau, the founder of the brotherhood revealed that Shan-Wei had a second string in her bow, and that second string was Nimue. Now Shan-Wei could have told Zherneau (IIRC his “real” name was Jeremy Knowles) that she had “multiple strings” or “other strings”. She didn’t. She had a “second string” — Nimue — and that was all she said.
I may be misremembering. I think I remember this correctly, but unfortunately, my copies of the books are not available to me at the moment to enable me to research this. If I am remembering correctly, though, this suggests that Shan-Wei had only Nimue as her backup plan and nothing else.
Comments, anyone?
IIRC the “Second String” was Jeremy Knowles phrase not Shan-wei’s phrase.
He apparently learned of Nimue by accident and never knew of any other Brotherhood but that was likely planned that way.
Also, it could be argued that Shan-wei’s “First String” was all of those who had been re-educated concerning Safehold, not just the ones living on Charis.
We also don’t know if anybody beside Jeremy and his three companions had been relocated as they had been. Jeremy knew that Shan-wei had planned to send more to Charis but Langhorne attacked before they were sent.
Based on what I remember, Jeremy didn’t know if others had been relocated elsewhere on Safehold *but* his lack of knowledge could have been because Shan-wei didn’t want to tell him about the others or didn’t have the chance to do so.
Mind you, IMO the odds are against any of the others being relocated in time, against any of the others setting up a Secret Brotherhood and against any other Secret Brotherhood surviving up to the current day on Safehold.
Thanks, all. I should mention that one thing that cued my suspicion of a Harchongese Brotherhood was rereading the massive incompetence of the Harchongese fleet. All in all, with the ships not finished, not even armed, and probably the worst possible commander in charge, it looked to me as if someone in Harchong was “dragging their feet” exactly as Charmeyan had been when told to provide her own fleet–only somewhat more subtly. There was no way those ships were going to be used to attack Charis any time soon.
Anyway, that’s my reasoning, and I suppose I should have included it the first time around.
@48 Drak: IIRC in OAR OWL found a good number of differences from Shan Wei’s and Langhorne’s rosters. They may not have been placed before the Rakurai or may not have survived doen the years; but there were many more than the four in Charis that formatted the ‘inner circle’ there.
AFAIK Jeremy Knowles developed his ‘second string to her bow information’ by eavesdropping and putting it together.
And IMO something had to start Sidarmark on the demcratic/republican/federation path especially surrounded by monarchies/theocracies (at worst absolute, at best parlimentary)!!
@49 JeffM: Dont’ attribute to enemy action what was most likely institutional incompetance/ineptitude (remember Harchong is the ultimate static stratified society (the main reason that admiral was in command was he was the senior-ranking nobly-born body that was still breathing and could be expected to continue)!!
Rank IMO in Harching was comparable to Czarist Russia (read the explanation a couple of snippets ago in ‘Kremlin Games’) where family position/rank was comparable (and sometimes exceeded) in priority to personal noble rank and far outstripped any personal earned ranks (and a person of lesser family/personal-noble rank COULD NOT command one with superior ties no matter what his earned rank was (i.e. an ensign of good family could not serve under the orders of a major with lesser family/personal-noble rank))!! Or comparable to the worst of Dynastic China. (With the Serfs/Slaves/static-stratification I would lean more to Russia than China though!)
/Rob