1636: The Saxon Uprising — Snippet 64

1636: The Saxon Uprising — Snippet 64

Chapter 23

Paris, capital of France

After he finished reading Servien’s précis of the latest reports from France’s agents in the United States of Europe, Cardinal Richelieu rose from his desk and went over to one of the window in his palace. The Palais-Cardinal had been completed five years earlier. It faced directly onto the Louvre and his office gave him a marvelous view of the royal palace from which, ultimately, derived the cardinal’s own power.

Behind him, the intendant Servien studied his master with considerable sympathy. It couldn’t be pleasant for him to contemplate the state of affairs in the USE. France’s chief minister was in much the same position as a tethered hawk, forced to watch squabbling doves heedless of his presence. The tether, in his case, being France’s own very tense internal political situation. What reliable troops the cardinal still had in his possession needed to be kept close at hand.

Feeling the need to say something, Servien cleared his throat. “It’s a great pity, isn’t it? To have to sit here and do nothing.”

The cardinal lifted his shoulders slightly, as if he’d begun a shrug and found it too much effort. “Just another reminder, Servien, if we needed it. God created the world. We did not.”

Was there a trace of reproach in his tone? A suggestion that the Almighty had fallen down on the job, here and there?

Probably not. Unlike a hawk, Armand Jean du Plessis de Richelieu was philosophically inclined by nature. Not what any sane person would call a contemplative man — certainly not any one of the cardinal’s many enemies. Or, if you could summon their ghosts, the even larger number of enemies he’d put in the grave. Still, he had a capacity to accept the trials and tribulations of fate in a calm and stoic manner.

He’d needed it, these past few years.

Madrid, capital of Spain

The chief minister of the Spanish crown, Gaspar de Guzmán, Count-Duke of Olivares, was far less inclined toward philosophy than Cardinal Richelieu — and his master the king of Spain less inclined still.

“You’re saying we can’t do anything?”

Olivares kept his eyes from meeting the king’s gaze directly. Philip IV’s tone of voice had a shrill quality that indicated his temper was badly frayed. He was normally not a bad master to serve — indeed, he could often be quite a pleasant one. But he was also a devotee of bull-fighting, and in times like this was prone to act as if he was a torero in the arena himself. With, alas, one or another of his ministers designated as the bull.

“Well…”

“Nothing?” Angrily, the king slammed his palm down on the table that served him for a desk in his private audience chamber, on those occasions when he felt like dealing with affairs of state directly. Infrequent occasions, fortunately.

“Your Majesty…”

“Why am I paying for my tercios, then?”

Olivares decided this was not the time to point out that the king’s payment of his soldiers was erratic. That was traditionally true for Spanish armies, but the situation had gotten even worse than usual of late.

“Answer me!”

There’d be no way to divert the king, obviously. Not today, after he’d just finished reading the latest reports on the turmoil that had enveloped the United States of Europe.

“We simply can’t do anything, Your Majesty. Between the unrest in Portugal and Catalonia –”

“Why were those seditious books not banned?”

“They were banned, Your Majesty, but…”

It was hard to explain such things to a man who’d been born, raised and spent his entire life in the cloistered surroundings of Spanish royalty. Banning unpleasant items from the Real Alcazar was one thing; banning them from Spain, quite another. Spain was one of Europe’s largest countries and more than nine-tenths of its borders were seacoast — more than three thousand miles of seacoast. Not all the tercios in the world could police it effectively, assuming Spain could afford the payroll — which it certainly couldn’t.

Smuggling was even more of a national pastime for Spaniards than bull-fighting. How did the king imagine that it would be possible to keep out copies of Grantville’s texts on Spanish and Portuguese history, when smugglers routinely handled livestock? All the more so because there weren’t that many of those texts, and most of them were just a few pages excerpted from encyclopedias.

A few pages, alas, were more than enough to encourage Portuguese and Catalan rebels to persist in their nefarious activity. In that cursed world the Americans came from, Portugal and Catalonia had rebelled in 1640 — not more than five years from now. And while the Catalan revolt failed in its purpose, it had been a very close thing. As it was, Spain lost much of the province to France.

Not surprisingly, the Catalan malcontents in this universe were simply being encouraged to try harder.

Fortunately, the king was distracted by other thoughts. Blessedly, by angry thoughts toward someone other than his chief minister. “It’s because of that fucking Borja, isn’t it?”

This was not safe terrain, certainly, but it was safer than the terrain they’d been treading on. “Yes, Your Majesty, I’m afraid so. Cardinal Borja’s…ah, papal adventure –”

“His adventure? Say better, his lunacy — no, his rampant vanity — better still, his plunge into Satanic pride!”

“Yes, Your Majesty. Well said! Whatever we call it, though, his actions have stirred up a great deal of unrest through Italy, including in our own possessions.”

“Indeed.” The king’s glare was still ferocious, but at least it now had a different focus. “Explain to me again, Gaspar, why I can’t have the bastard assassinated?”

“Ah, well… That would just compound the damage, I’m afraid. As I said before, Your Majesty, Borja’s precipitate action has simply left us with few options, and none of them very good. If we kill him — if anyone kills him — then there’s little doubt that Urban will take back the papacy. And he’s…ah…”

“Now bitterly hostile to us on the picayune grounds that we overthrew him and murdered several dozen of his bishops and cardinals, including his nephew Francesco.”

“Well. Yes.”

The king spent the next minute or so calling down a variety of divine ills and misfortunes on the person of Cardinal Gaspare de Borja y de Velasco. The tirade spilled over into outright blasphemy — not that even the boldest of Spain’s inquisitors would have said a word on the subject, with the king in his current mood. It was notable also that at no time did Philip IV refer to Borja by any title other than profane and profoundly vulgar ones. He certainly never used the man’s newly-minted title of “pope.”

When he finally wound down, most of his fury seemed to have been spent. It was replaced by a sort of sullen resignation that was not pleasant to deal with, but no longer really dangerous.

“The essence of the matter is that we have no resources to do anything significant about the heretics. The USE crumbles — the same swine who — ah! Never mind! It’s too aggravating to even think about! We just have to sit here, on our hands, and do nothing.”

Olivares decided to interpret that as the king’s summation rather than a question. That way he could avoid, once again, having to say “Yes, we can’t” where the king wanted to hear “No, we can.”

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48 Responses to 1636: The Saxon Uprising — Snippet 64

  1. dave o says:

    Well, that takes care of the three pre-ROF continental powers.

  2. Jeff Ehlers says:

    Spain and France…what’s the third? Austria?

    Also, who’s surprised? France and Spain both got mauled pretty badly in the 1634 battles.

  3. Peter says:

    More importantly, we have a confirmation that everybody who sees in the OTL histories a chance to upset their local applecart is now trying to do so. I’d bet on Portugual’s success, Catalonia seems much more dubious.

    The interesting question, one that will likely distract Spain severely at critical moments (distract, as in ‘suck up troops’) will be Italian unrest. What’s Urban doing to get Rome back under his control? I’d bet he’s not leaving those various cardinal’s hats vacant for Borja to mess around with – he’s probably filling them as fast as he can with supporters, and making sure that any claimants that Borja tries to post to those Sees have a hard time getting control. Italy could be erupting with little fire-fights all over the place, thanks to the Papal struggles.

  4. ET1swaw says:

    France is in near civil war between Richelieu and Gaston (Louis XIII’s brother and still the heir; Louis XIV not yet born to blatently homosexual (not bisexual) Louis XIII). Fernando’s (the ex-cardinal-infante) KLC has absorbed what OTL was part of northern France and parts of Lorraine-Bar (NTL supported against French absorption). And Bernhard Wettin has taken the Franche-Comte and parts of Alsace for his Grand Duchy of Burgundy. Even the Swiss seem getting involved.
    Spain is suffering from unrest in Catalonia and Portugal (and their empire) and IIRC OTL overseas revolts were also in progress. Canon gives unrest in Naples-Sicily as well. Genoa-Corsica, Sardinia, and Malta are only nominally under Spain’s thumb. Venice, Savoy, Mantua-Montferrat, Tuscany, Parma, Lucca, and Modena (the first four, Genoa, and Malta all with ties to the USE) are independent or allied with France. Rome and the Papal States are newly conquered and restless. Spanish Italian Possessions aren’t looking so good. And Fernando took a piece of Phillip’s army and navy when he formed the KLC in 1634.
    Austria has lost Bohemia, Silesia, Tyrol, and their HRE german possessions; and Brandenburg and Saxony their independence.
    The NTL European and World political maps are a whole lot different. With the ‘Anaconda Project’, USE vs PLC, Ottoman vs Europe conflict, and all the incipient revolts and civil war it may change further!
    @3 Peter: I agree Italy will be a sinkhole for Spain even beyond Rome and the Papal States. I’d say Naples-Sicily has almost as good a chance as Catalonia to get free. Genoa-Corsica may also reconsider their ties to Spain; they are not all that far in the past from their own mini-empire (like their opposite number Venice). Their’s is still the largest Empire (especially with Portugal’s added); so requiring the most to keep stable. (I am disregarding the Persians, Mughals, and Chinese.)

  5. ET1swaw says:

    Correction: I meant Genoa’s past mini-empire.
    With the USE, Kalmar Union, and possible expanded Swedish Empire, along with Russia’s eastward expansion and PLC/Russian squabbles; the north is changed as well. Africa and the Americas are also changing in NTL (i.e. Virginia is now Louisiana and belongs to France).

  6. Johan says:

    One thing seems sure: it won’t be long before Spain loses the rest of her holdings outside Iberia, perhaps even territory IN Iberia. Any which way, Spanish power in Europe will be broken some 60 years before OTL.
    This snippet have wet my appetite for more books on the Italian Front. :)

    Oh, and a question. When they talk of Catalonia do they mean the up-time autonomous province of Catalonia or do they mean the Crown of Aragon?

  7. dave o says:

    #2 Jeff: Of course Austria. Although at this period, it was probably weaker than France or Spain, since it held a lot less of Hungary than later. And yes, I agree about the lack of surprise. I had assumed that France was in no position to take advantage because of it’s own unrest. And I didn’t see how Spain could do much against the USE even if they wanted to. At most they might have tried to solidify their position in Italy, which would have no direct effect on the USE. Fortunately, good old Borja prevented even that. But maybe Flint is just making the obvious certain.

    #4 Johan: I’m not so sure about Spain losing everything outside of Iberia. Italy probably, Catalonia possibly, Portugal possibly. But France isn’t in a position to meddle in Catalonia, nor England in Portugal. The Netherlanders may, as they did uptime, but it’s hard to see why right now. In South America, the Spanish are a lot thicker on the ground than any of their competitors. They might lose territory in the Caribbean, but their hold on the mainland looks pretty secure to me. At least for the immediate future.

  8. Greg Eatroff says:

    And there are also the Spanish and Portugese territories in Africa to consider: from small Mediterranean cities like Ceuta to large colonies like Angola.

  9. Stanley Leghorn says:

    North America is going to be a far different place than it was OTL. Which will be mostly bad, aside from the elimination of the slave trade. The wars between France and England OTL will be minor sideshows compared to the conflicts over the now known and locatable wealth there. I would not be surprised at a Chinese or Japanese settlement showing up in California. Koreans in Alaska? I need to get back on the Bar and see what slush stories are going on.

  10. Mike says:

    Spain can likely suppress – by force alone – two revolts. At the moment that looks like Portugal and Catalonia. The true problem is that they will fail if they try to do three – with Naples being the next most likely. If the Spanish forces are split three (or more) ways, they may likely be unable to control revolts they otherwise could have contained by force. If you add in any other Italian possessions stiring for independence – or worse unification – that on top of the forces propping up Borja just adds to disaster in the Italian penninsula.

    @5 dave o: Your analysis regarding S. America is likely spot on, save for two likely caveats: 1) If the Portugese revolt fails in Portugal, it could very well succeed in Brazil. Especially if the losing freedom fighters relocate en masse as did much of the Portugese court during the Napoleonic wars. 2) S. America independence movements will be a result of the administrative classes deciding it is no longer in their best interests to be part of Spain. If mainland Spain undergoes simultaneous revolts, be they successful or not but long to subdue, that will only give them the same sort of impetus to consider revolts of their own. Granted they have 160 years less of Western style infrastructure than OTL, but quite a bit of S. America is also only two generations away from being forced into the Spanish Empire. There may very well be “native” independence movements. Keep in mind the Jesuit run reducciones among several different indigenous peoples of South America are still in existence. While by no means an exhaustive or wholly accurate reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesuit_Reductions Further, it is cannon that these areas are possibly already aware of Grantville. (Malungu Seed in ROF2)

  11. ET1swaw says:

    @6 johan: Catalonia is trans-pyrenean still at this point and was supported OTL by France resulting in the loss to France of north of the Pyrenees Catalonia when their revolt failed.
    @7 dave o; @9 Stanley Leghorn: S. America is primarily Portuguese (i.e. Brazil) except maybe Peru. Mexico (except for Baja and California being not yet exploited, nor is the southwestern US (i.e. Texas,Arizona, etc.)) and Central America -are- Spanish; as well as the Gulf Coast west from Mobile and Florida. Georgia and the Carolinas are up for grabs (mostly Cherokee ATT). The Caribbean is a free-for-all.
    @8 Greg Eatroff: OTL the United Provinces supported the african (but Roman Catholic) Kingdom of Kongo and allies against Portuguese/Angolan agression (almost expelling them from Angola) in 1640s; and Recife was a Dutch stronghold in Portuguese Brazil. With Fernando being Phillip’s brother that may not happen NTL; though the VOC is in canon in support against Spanish interests (prior to notification of formation of KLC). Interestingly another pretender (other than who took the throne OTL in 1640) to the Portuguese throne and brother-in-law to Frederik Henry (prince of Orange and 2nd noble in KLC) is in the KLC (in Brussels IIRC).

  12. vikingted says:

    ET1swaw….. define VOC KLC and IIRC, please.

  13. ET1swaw says:

    @11 vikingted: IIRC – if I recall/remember correctly. VOC – Dutch East India Company. KLC – Kingdom/King of the Low Countries (the Netherlands – United Provinces + Spanish Netherlands (Belgium + Luxembourg) + OstFriesland + Bentheim + parts of Lorraine-Bar and northern France)

  14. johan says:

    I should have made myself clearer: I refered to the European parts of the Spanish Empire. Mexico et al is pretty secure, I know.

    @7 Stanley Leghorn: Check the Bar for what’s happening in California and East Asia in general. :D The stories seem to lead to a general “Scramble for North America” in general. Danes, Dutch, French, Spanish, Japanese. Depending on what happens in England they might rejoin the race. Perhaps a free Portugal decides it wants a piece of that pie aswell? And then there’s Sweden and the USE. Not to mention how the natives will react to the knowledge of what happened uptime. Perhaps a strong, independent Cherokee nation? Interesting times. IIRC there are plans for a book about the USE Navy in the Caribbean and Texas. I don’t know about Korea in this era but it wasn’t called the Hermit Kingdom for nothing, outdoing all the other East Asian states in their isolationism.

  15. WCG says:

    Speaking of Italy, when ARE we going to see a sequel to “1635: The Cannon Law”? After all, that book ended in the middle of the story, and it’s been, what, five years now?

    Frankly, that’s probably been my favorite thread in the 1632 world.

    I try not to look ahead, because then these things seem to take forever to get here. But as I say, it’s been five years. How much longer will we have to wait?

    Heh, heh. Of course, I’m waiting for other books, too, like the next in the series that started with “1812: The Rivers of War.” I sure wish we could clone Eric Flint, so that each of them could work full time on a different project. :)

  16. Drak Bibliophile says:

    WCG, don’t know when it will be out but _1635: The Papal Stakes_ is (according to Eric) being written.

    I’m not completely sure of why it has been delayed.

    By the way, when Saxon Uprising is available, you can read the Afterword of it to see the current plans about this series.

    Oh, I got the info about Papal Stakes from the EARC of Saxon Uprising.

  17. dave o says:

    #11 ET1swaw I think that at this period, Portuguese settlement is limited to coastal Brazil, and is disputed by the Dutch who hold, I think, Recife. Spain claims the rest of S.America and has at least some settlement in modern Venezuela, Columbia, Equador, Peru, and Chile. I haven’t checked the status of Argentina and Bolivia. All of Central America and all of the greater Antilles,- Jamaica, Porto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba are claimed by Spain, and to some extent settled by them. And Mexico, of course. Overall, there don’t seem to be a lot of Spaniards occupying all this territory. Whether they can hold on to most or all of it is an open question. But if the slave trade is stopped, the temptation by other powers to steal sugar islands is much reduced.

    In all of the discussion of the Americas, it would be nice if people realized just how few Europeans were on the ground there. Claims mean very little if there isn’t the population to support them. Until steam powered ships become common, sending an expeditionary force across the Atlantic is a major undertaking. The Pacific even more so. But if there is reason to do it, the great powers can, and swamp local resistance.

  18. Cobbler says:

    # 15. IIRC, Eric published Cannon Law out of internal sequence for the sake of his co-author, Andrew Dennis. Dennis had done his part. It wasn’t fair to make him wait years for his paycheck, until the northern stories caught up.

  19. Bret Hooper says:

    @18 Cobbler: Either you RC or I don’t. I read where Eric said exactly what you remember he did.

  20. morgulknight says:

    The scene in Madrid made me wonder if a copy of George Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia” made it through the Ring of Fire. I could easily see Melissa Mailey for one owning a copy. Catalonia could explode at any minute anyway, and if you can smuggle livestock into Spain, a samizdat copy of Orwell would be child’s play. If the aristocrats of Europe thought the CoCs were bad, just wait until they get a good look at Catalonian anarcho-syndicalists almost exactly three hundred years ahead of schedule…assuming the CoCs or a faction of them don’t start absorbing some of those ideas themselves.

  21. Geoff says:

    Spain would be a lot better off if it would cut its losses in Italy by arresting Borja and handing him and the papal states back to Pope Urban. At least that way they could blame it all on Borja and get some limited good will from Pope Urban. It would also free up the troops in Rome to go back to Naples and sit on any revolt there.

  22. robert says:

    It is pretty clear that in our history, Spain was ruined by its dependence on bullion from its colonies. Let them alone, help foment rebellion (200 years early) and watch them sink into being the poverty-stricken nation they were by the beginning of the 20th century.

  23. dean says:

    in what book or cannon does it says that the slave trade has stop and who stop it

  24. Scott says:

    When I think of Spain in this timeline I think of the saying “he who trys to hold on to everything loses everything.”
    Cutting losses would seem a good idea for Spain at this point.

  25. Fry says:

    What about the Basque? I should think they would want independence. I take it Galicia is going with Portugal in its revolt?

  26. ET1swaw says:

    Henry IV is only 15 years ago and Basques are as Trans-Pyranean (and as uppity) as Catalonians. Angola is having problems (they were OTL anyway) with Kongo, Nzinga, and their allies (OTL with Dutch help they almost kicked out the Portuguese in 1640s). As you mentioned the Dutch are in Recife (including Battle of Dunkirk survivors). A USE/Swedish colony is also in S. America. Portugal, Catalonia, and Naples-Sicily revolting is a given. Genoa-Corsica is rebuilding and expanding trade (especially with USE (i.e. blue jeans, etc.)) making them less dependent on being Phillip’s bankers (and Spain has defaulted 3 or 4 times). Spanish Netherlands (a previous money producer despite the Eighty Year’s War) has been lost to another country along with a goodly sized portion of the Spanish Army and Navy (and Dunkirk’s privateers no longer pay them off). They have lost pacific possessions (see 1632 snerks)and been kicked out of Japan (OTL and NTL). Their economy is crippled by outright refusal to modernise (even the Ottomans are letting concepts (if not up-timers) through) except for private ventures (even Russia is more in the swing). And Borja’s actions (with his ties to the Inquisition therefore reflecting on the Crown as well) have not only lit off the Italies but schismed the RC church as well (even the Jesuits are schisming). IMO Olivares and Phillip are rapidly approaching SOL status. They may save Spain from a Bourbon king (innoculation and less inbreeding), but still allow their empire to shatter.
    @23 dean: One of Mike Stearns’ stated prime goals is to end slave trade and ‘second serfdom’. I don’t think anything concrete has made it into canon.

  27. gpe says:

    @4 I am not quite sure about possible USE ties with Malta. Where did you find this? Is it somewhere in the canon? The Malta situation is a peculiar one since it is a sovereign nation under the Knights of St.John. And the Grand Magister of the order is a sovereign prince AND a Prince of the Church (cardinal). The last one is a “recent” development c.1630 IIRC. OTL the Knights, and especially the Grand Magisters of the Order, were quite insistent on the independence from either the Pope or Spain. Again OTL there is unrest within the ranks of the Knights especially between the Spanish and the French ones.

  28. Stanley Leghorn says:

    @23 The slave trade is the largest black mark on American History, closely followed by the Native American Genocide. Mike intends to prevent the first from happening. The second is less likely to happen, but it has been historically true that invaders are very bad for the people who were originally there. Innoculating the population against smallpox and measles would go a long way, especially the Iroquois and Cherokee who were fairly organized ATT. Horses are already in the new world, so the plains culture with the cavalry force is beginning. They just need to adapt a little faster to guns and they may be able to dictate better terms than they were given OTL.

  29. ET1swaw says:

    @26 gpe: Can’t remember if slush or canon. If slush I apologize to all!!

  30. Joe Cozart says:

    @17 Spain may claim Central America, but the last Maya city state, Tayasal, was not conquered until 1697.

  31. johan says:

    Out of interest, how large is the population of Spain’s colonial empire in the Americas?

    @27 Stanley Leghorn: The Indians need more than just guns if they are to have any hope of dictating better terms. Modern military training and doctrines for example. They really were their own worst enemy OTL. Their refusal to fully adapt to new ways and leave their hunter-gatherer society behind aswell as cease the inter tribal bickering accelerated their defeat. As you say, the Iroqouis and the Cherokee are probably the best hope they have of creating something that can withstand European encroachment. Except for the Americans and those they’ve influenced, precious few Europeans will think twice about repeating history.

  32. WCG says:

    Thanks for the info about the sequel to “1635: The Cannon Law”!

  33. ET1swaw says:

    @31 johan: The Five Nations (Iroquois) are just getting involved with europeans. There is a very good story in slush on them.
    The Cherokee have the Georgia and Carolinas gold as a lever for NTL (NTL Europe -is- aware of it).

  34. johan says:

    @33 ET1swaw: What’s the name of the Iroquois story?
    Knowing how Eric likes to turn history on it’s head in these books I expect to see a very different outcome from the discovery of the Georgia gold fields than a Trail of Tears for the Cherokee.

  35. Joe Cozart says:

    @31 By the 1630’s, the population of Mexico was less than 10% of its pre-conquest numbers. Successive epidemics and encomienda labor had reduced their numbers to under a million. Peru wasn’t far behind. OTL Mexico’s population didn’t surpass its pre-conquest level until around 1945.

  36. Cobbler says:

    @ 28, Stanley Leghorn; “the plains culture with the cavalry force is beginning.” …IIRC and despite western movies, the plains Indians mostly used the horse for transportation and fought on foot. The European analogue would be mounted infantry. Though in Europe mounted infantry seldom used the coup stick.

    AFIK, only the Comanche mastered fighting on horseback.

  37. Jeff Ehlers says:

    @31: It’s a lot easier said than done to get rid of “inter-tribal bickering”. Usually, it takes the threat of someone bigger and nastier, and sometimes not even then. Another thing you have to remember is that tribal differences are just as important to the people who have them as country differences are to us today. In a very real sense, Native American tribes were effectively very small countries (like the ancient Greek city-states, if you want an analogue).

    Ironically, the thing that has the best chance to prevent the ultimate subjugation of the Native Americans is the Ring of Fire itself. Leaving aside Spain, which has been rocked hard enough that it won’t have the strength to do much in the Americas, none of the major colonial powers were all that interested in actual conquest, just in riches (and Spain was interested in riches too, they just wanted people to do the work for them). Now that they know where the riches are, they’re much less likely to leave it to the undesirables who would otherwise ship themselves off and eventually find it themselves.

    It was the large population of European colonists who eventually organized into a country built around bringing more colonists in to take advantage of all the land who were the real nemesis of the Native Americans. If that factor is removed or lessened, the Native Americans will have a chance to effectively adapt to the influx of European ways without being crushed by cultural pressure.

  38. Drak Bibliophile says:

    Well Jeff, land is considered “wealth” and going somewhere outside the “established power structure” was considered valuable.

    IMO those will still be considered factors in colonizing NA.

  39. summertime says:

    The advent of the USE into European history, with it’s ideals of peace, liberty, harmony, etc., may mitigate some of the conditions that forced many immigrants to head to the Americas. Constant upheavals and conflicts in Europe led a lot of people to go to America in search of a better life. Not all immigrants came to America in search of gold or riches. Some just wanted to be farmers, artisans. run small businesses, etc., without interference. If a calmer social climate had come about in Europe they would have stayed there. Therefore, in the new time line, if things settle down better than in the old time line, fewer people will feel compelled to move away.

  40. Vince says:

    @36 Cobbler: IIRC The Sioux were considered excellent light cavalry. This was by one of the US cavalry generals who opposed them. Can’t remember exact quote or the general who said it.

  41. cka2nd says:

    I just don’t see any way that the death of 80-90% of the American Indian population from epidemics of imported diseases can be prevented. If fewer Europeans migrate to the Americas, AND they are not replaced by significant Japanese or Chinese populations, AND the African Slave Trade is greatly reduced, the more organized nations MIGHT be able to recover enough from such a disaster to preserve or regain their independence, but I can’t see them being in a particularly strong bargaining (or military) position when the foreigners come looking for known resources.

    I don’t know Eric’s plans for the Americas, but there have got to be some characters, up-time and down, who have to be giving this some serious thought. If it were me, I’d be thinking about the public health question, obviously, and finding some way to reach out to the most advanced North, Central and South American nations, and debating whether it would make sense to try to convince said nations to send representatives to visit and report back on Grantville. In other words, “Please, come and spy on us!”

    @20 I’ve got to believe that either the public or high school library would have Homage to Catalonia, and from the additional resources Eric and Co. have discovered in Mannington, WV over the years, including large private libraries, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a number of private copies floating around or that some of them, or reproductions, had not made it to, at least, the Spanish and French courts.

  42. Vince says:

    @41 cka2nd: Eric & Co. have discovered a lot of additional stuff in Mannington WV over the years. But Grantville is not Mannington. It is based on Eric’s knowledge of Mannington at the time he did his research, with some changes due to authorial fiat (powerplant and swapping of oil wells for natural gas wells). Since then, he has discovered that many of his estimates were low. The problem with with all this is trying to fit it into the existing 1632 universe without introducing major continuity errors.

  43. Terranovan says:

    About “Homage to Catalonia” @20, 41, and 42: There definitely was an edition that made it through. It was referenced in the (so far only one-part) serial “Homage to Etruria” by Jay Robison in GG#17. It’s a wedding gift to Ruy Sanchez (more about him in Galileo Affair & Cannon Law) and is described as “rather more durable, an edition of an up-time book called Homage to Catalonia. From the letter Signore McDougal sent with the materials, this book was an Englishman’s account of fighting in a future civil war in Spain and might be of interest to…”

  44. Stanley Leghorn says:

    @38 Land and freedom are well established reasons for going off into the unknown, but the mass migrations were the results of war, famine, and intolerance (usually religious but often racial) My own maternal ancestors (Buechele and Jessup) were chased out by the uprisings of 1847-49. Lost of refugees from the Napoleonic wars and the reprisals afterwards. The Irish Potatoe famine changed the demographics of the northeastern US and Canada tremondously. But these occured when travel was relatively cheap. An ocean going ship was not something an average person could consider buying, and passage would be either working or horrendously expensive. Without gov’t support, colonies in NA are going to be sparse.

    I wonder what Piracy will look like in the Carribean if Spain loses it’s colonies to independance?

  45. Peter says:

    I don’t see any way that Europe will _not_ invade North America. There are known resources that are relatively easily accessible. There are easy tech advances to ships and other infrastructure that will drastically lower the cost of going there. There is a lot of new demand about to develop from the industrialization of Europe. And there’s going to be an amalgamation wave attributable to the USE and Grantville that will chafe on lots of little social and religious populations. Collectively these forces will drive expansion across the Atlantic. The Europeanized America that results may not look much like our America, and is likely to be much more politically fragmented. But the Amerindians’ place in it is likely to be just as small as it ended up being in OTL.

  46. Drak Bibliophile says:

    Correct Peter.

    Also, we must remember that whatever views Grantvillers hold toward the American Indians and how they should be treated, Grantvillers can only influence Europeans not compel Europeans.

    If the American Indians are to have a bigger role in the NTL’s North America than they do in our North America, they *will* have to change their “way of life” to match the Europeans.

    Just giving the American Indians weapons wouldn’t help them against the Europeans.

    Most of the American Indian tribes lacked the organized society that would aid them against the European settlers.

  47. ET1swaw says:

    @34 johan: ‘Spotted Beast’ by Michael Varhola; it was bumped up by ‘Mongo’ in ‘1632 Slush’ Aug 8, 2010; original was years back.

  48. Captain Button says:

    dean @23:

    I did a quick search and the only big reference I found to Stearns vs the Atlantic slave trade was in 1634-The Baltic War, chapter 8.

    I didn’t check the gazettes.

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