A Mighty Fortress - Snippet 27
A Mighty Fortress - Snippet 27
There’s a lesson there, Merlin reflected. Or a damned sharp bit of irony, at any rate, given how unpopular “reformers” like Cayleb Ahrmahk and Maikel Staynair are proving in the Temple just now!
“You realize,” the baron said after a second or two, “if he actually manages to get their navy reorganized for them, Thorast and the others will toss him to the krakens just as soon as they figure they can possibly get along without him.”
“Of course they will,” Merlin agreed a trifle sadly. “I think he knows it, too. Which only makes him even more dangerous, from our perspective.”
“So we’ll just have to do something about him ourselves,” Rock Point said more briskly. “Gwylym’s about ready to sail.”
“I know.” Merlin frowned. “In a lot of ways, though, I wish you were going, instead.”
“Gwylym’s just as capable as I am,” Rock Point pointed out. There might have been a touch of stiffness in his tone, and Merlin shook his head quickly.
“It’s not a matter of capabilities, Domynyk,” he said. “Believe me, no one has more respect for Gwylym than I do! It’s just that I’d rather the fellow in charge of singeing King Rahnyld’s beard had access to the SNARCs. Especially given how competent we’ve just agreed Thirsk is turning out to be.”
Rock Point nodded in acknowledgment, although the acknowledgment in question was obviously a bit grudging. Still, he really couldn’t argue the point. Admiral Sir Gwylym Manthyr had been Cayleb’s flag captain at the battles of Rock Point, Crag Hook, and Darcos Sound. He was an experienced seaman, possessed of a singular attention to detail and an iron nerve. He was not, however, one of the “inner circle” who had been cleared for the truth about Merlin, which meant he wasn’t going to be examining any “satellite imagery.” Nor, for that matter, would anyone assigned to his staff.
Unfortunately, Rock Point himself was the only one of Cayleb and Sharleyan’s senior naval officers who was part of the inner circle. Getting some of the others on board was a high priority, but, again, not something which could be rushed. Rock Point himself had argued strongly in favor of adding High Admiral Bryahn Lock Island to the list, and both he and Merlin were confident that the Brethren of Saint Zherneau would approve Lock Island’s admission quite soon. Of course, the question then arose of just who would inform Lock Island. With Cayleb, Sharleyan, and Archbishop Maikel all out of Old Charis, it would be virtually impossible to find the right messenger — somebody with the authority to make Lock Island listen if he didn’t take it well, and somebody he’d trust enough to believe when he did listen. Baron Wave Thunder might serve in a case of dire emergency, but still . . . .
“I could probably talk Bryahn into sending me, instead of Gwylym,” the baron said after a moment, but his expression was unhappy and his tone was tentative.
“No.” Merlin shook his head again. “Cayleb and Sharleyan are right about that. We need you right where you are, too. Or, rather, where you’re about to be. And, let’s face it, Dohlar’s a worry, but Tarot’s right next door. And White Ford is no slouch, either.”
It was Rock Point’s turn to a grimace, but he couldn’t disagree.
The Imperial Charisian Navy was the largest, most powerful fleet any single Safeholdian realm had ever boasted. It was rising rapidly to a strength of over ninety galleons, and it continued to expand. Unfortunately, it wasn’t going to find itself matched against any other single Safeholdian realm; it was going to face the combined fleets of virtually every mainland realm. Worse, the Church of God Awaiting had poured out staggering sums to subsidize those fleets, although not all of the various kingdoms’ and empires’ building programs were equally advanced. The Temple Lands and the more northern ports of the Harchong Empire were considerably behind the shipyards of Dohlar and the Desnairian Empire, and that situation wasn’t going to improve for the Church any time soon. But the plain, ugly truth was that even with an unlimited budget (which it didn’t have) the Charisian Empire couldn’t possibly have matched the mainland realms’ combined building capacity. Nor was the Charisian supply of manpower unlimited, either. Ninety galleons, each with a crew of roughly five hundred, required forty-five thousand men. So far, the Navy had managed to meet its manpower requirements without resorting to impressment of its own, largely because it had always followed policies similar to the ones Thirsk had forced upon Dohlar and the Church. That was about to change, however, because there were only so many volunteers who could be attracted no matter what the inducement, and the manning situation was only going to get worse as the size of the fleet continued to climb.
And it was going to have to climb. Assuming the Church completed its current construction programs, it would command a fleet of over three hundred and ninety galleons — better than four times the current Charisian strength. A hundred and fifty of them would be converted merchant ships, but so were a quarter of the Charisian Navy’s galleons. And that didn’t even consider the two hundred-plus galleys the Church had built before it realized just how outclassed galleys had become. They might not be well suited to decisive broadside duels, but they more than doubled the total number of hulls the Church could throw at its opponents, and if they were free to operate while the Church’s galleons neutralized Charis’ galleons . . . .
The good news was that the ships in question were scattered between five widely separated navies. No single kingdom or empire could match the Charisians’ numbers, although Harchong would come close once it’s winter-delayed construction could be completed. Concentrating those widely dispersed squadrons would be at least as difficult as it had been to concentrate the forces detailed for the Group of Four’s original plans for Old Charis’ destruction. And even after they were concentrated, their companies would be sadly inexperienced compared to the Imperial Navy’s crews.
Earl Thirsk, at least, obviously recognized that fact. So did Gahvyn Mahrtyn, the Baron of White Ford, King Gorjah of Tarot’s senior admiral. Unfortunately, from the Church’s perspective, they were the only two fleet commanders still available to it who had ever faced the Charisian Navy in battle. The Earl of Black Water, the Corisandian commander at Darcos Sound, had died there, and Gharth Rahlstahn, the Earl of Mahndyr, and Sir Lewk Cohlmyn, the Earl of Sharpfield, who had commanded the Emeraldian and the Chisholmian components of Black Water’s fleet, were now in Charisian service. Even more unfortunately (for the Church), the fact that Thirsk and White Ford had been devastatingly defeated by then-Crown Prince Cayleb had caused their advice to be discounted by almost all of their fellow flag officers.
That was clearly changing in Thirsk’s case, but neither Harchong, nor the Desnairian Empire, nor the Temple Lands seemed overly inclined to profit by Dohlar’s example. Tarot did, but King Gorjah continued to languish under a cloud of disapproval. It seemed clear that the Group of Four continued to blame Tarot for the disastrous intelligence leak which had permitted King Haarahld of Charis and his son to deduce the Church’s strategy and come up with a counter strategy to defeat it in detail. That was grossly unfair, although with no knowledge of Merlin’s SNARCs, it was understandable enough. Particularly given Charis’ efforts to encourage exactly that reaction.
As a consequence, none of the Church’s galley fleet had been laid down in Tarotisian shipyards. Following the Group of Four’s belated switched to a galleon-based fleet, Tarot had been admitted to the building program, yet even then the Tarotisian component remained the smallest of all. And White Ford — who was quite possibly an even better combat commander than Thirsk — had been almost totally ignored.
Under the circumstances, the Church’s numerical advantage was considerably less overwhelming than it might appear. To set against that, however, the Empire of Charis was a very large, very vulnerable target. Charis and Chisholm, in particular, were six thousand miles apart, as the wyvern flew, and it was over two thousand miles from Port Royal, in Chisholm, to Corisande’s Cape Targan. A ship deployed to defend Charis was a minimum of a month from Chisholm under even the most favorable conditions of wind and weather, and it would take almost that long for a ship stationed in Chisholm to reach Manchyr, in Corisande.
Distances and transit times like that prevented High Admiral Lock Island from concentrating his own forces in a central position. In fact, he’d been forced to station twenty galleons in Chisholm, under Admiral Sharpfield and supported by the Chisholmian Navy’s surviving galleys. Another ten galleons and twenty-five galleys had been stationed in Corisandian waters under Earl Mahndyr, and Lock Island had retained twenty galleons under his own command, covering Rock Shoal Bay and the approaches to Howell Bay and the Sea of Charis.
That left barely forty galleons for other service, and freeing up even that many had been possible only because the Church’s war fleet was so widely scattered . . . and still so far short of completion. As more of the Church’s galleons became available for service, the various Charisian defensive fleets would have to be strengthened, which would reduce the strength available for other tasks still further.
Unless something could be done in the meantime to reduce the numbers opposed to them.
That was supposed to be Manthyr’s and Rock Point’s assignment. Manthyr, with eighteen galleons and six thousand Marines was bound for the Sea of Harchong. More specifically, he was bound for Hardship Bay, on the largely uninhabited Claw Island. There were reasons very few people lived on Claw Island. It wasn’t vey big — barely a a hundred and twelve miles in its longest dimension. It was also little more than two hundred miles south of the equator, and its barren, mostly treeless expanses of rock and sand were about as welcoming as an oven the same size. On the other hand, Hardship Bay offered a good deep-water anchorage, and the small city of Claw Keep would offer his squadron a home port . . . of sorts, at any rate. Even more importantly, it was better than twenty-one thousand sea miles from Tellesberg which put it “barely” five thousand sea miles from Gorath Bay. It also lay off the western coast of South Harchong, however, where a quarter of the Harchong Empire’s galleons were under construction, and it was less than fifteen hundred miles from the mouth of the Gulf of Dohlar.
The voyage to Claw Island would actually have been slightly shorter if he sailed east, by way of Chisholm, instead of west, past Armageddon Reef and around the southern tip of the continent of Howard, but he’d have both favorable winds and currents going west, especially this time of year. He’d probably average at least fifty or sixty miles more a day on his projected course . . . and it would still take him better than three months to complete the voyage.
Once he got there, his Marines ought to be more than sufficient to capture Claw Keep and garrison the island, especially since the only reliable source of water on the entire sun-blasted spit were the artesian wells that served Claw Keep itself. That would provide him with a secure base from which to operate against both Dohlar and Harchong. He’d be a long way from home, although he’d be within nine thousand miles of Chisholm, but he’d be well placed to blockade the Gulf of Dohlar and intercept any effort to combine Thirsk’s galleons with the Harchongese contingent building further south around Shipwreck Bay, in the provinces of Queiroz, Kyznetsov, and Selkar. Even if he did nothing but sit there (and Merlin was confident that an officer of Manthyr’s abilities and personality should find all manner of ways to make himself an infuriating pest), it was unlikely the Church — or King Rahnyld or Emperor Waisu, for that matter — would be prepared to tolerate a Charisian presence that close to them.
His galleons would be substantially outnumbered — by almost four-to-one by Dohlar, alone, assuming the Dohlarans got all of their own warships completed and manned — but the greater experience of his crews and captains would offset much of that disadvantage. And the simple fact that Charis was once again taking the initiative, despite its numerical disadvantage, would have profound implications for the confidence and morale of his opponents.
And if worse came to worst, he could always load his Marines back aboard his transports and withdraw.
That’s the idea, at least, Merlin thought. And as a way to throw a spanner into the Church’s plans, it’s got a lot to recommend it. But I’d still feel better with Domynyk in command. Or if we could give Gwylym a com, at least! I hate having that big a chunk of the Navy out at the end of a limb that long when we can’t even talk to its CO.
Unfortunately, as he himself had just pointed out, they were going to need Rock Point closer to home. He and the remaining twenty galleons currently available to Charis would be moving their base of operations to Hanth Town on Margaret Bay, which would put him across the Tranjyr Passage from the Kingdom of Tarot. His new base would be well placed to assist Lock Island in meeting any threat against Old Charis from East Haven or Desnair. More importantly, however, he’d be in a position to operate directly against Tarot.
And Sharleyan was right about that, too, Merlin reflected. It’s more important than ever to . . . induce Gorjah to consider joining the Empire voluntarily. Or, failing that, to present him with a somewhat more forceful argument. Neutralizing Tarot would be worthwhile in its own right. Gaining Tarot as a forward base right off the East Haven coast would be even more worthwhile. And getting our hands on the galleons Gorjah’s building for the Church wouldn’t hurt a damned thing, either!
“I’d like to be able to do a lot of things we can’t do right now,” he said out loud. “Desnair’s starting to worry me, for one thing, and I really wish we could get at Harchong and the Temple Lands yards! But we can’t afford to uncover Old Charis and Chisholm, and that’s just the way it is. If Gwylym can keep Dohlar busy long enough for you and Gray Harbor to convince Gorjah to see the light, it’ll help a lot, though.”
“Then we’ll just have to see what we can do about that, won’t we, Seijin Merlin?” Rock Point said with a smile. “We’ll just have to see what we can do.”
Looks like the Church is gonna lose a few of its rather expensive galleons…more than a few, really. You have to almost feel sorry for Thirsk…
Comment by Jared — March 10, 2010 @ 1:29 am
The yare going to be doing raids. good. Without raiding, I doubt they’d be able to deal with all those ships.
Comment by AVD — March 10, 2010 @ 2:12 am
Again stupid, so much easier to claymore or mine some of these ships. Merlin could easily do it by swimming into the bays or while the ships are at sea at night and attaching incendiary mines to the ships hulls and detonating them one by one. No one will be the wiser when 30-40 ships go down without a trace. Just kill off any survivors in the water then spread rumors that the church did not properly design her ships and created structural faults. Then spread rumors about Charisian infiltrators in the harbors. Create a windmill of rumors and let the church run a terror campaign on the local populations. When that happens, sooner or later the local rulers and people will begin to hate the church more than the charisians. As history’s shown, sooner or later terror regimes begin breaking down. Everyone keeps saying Merlin shouldn’t or can’t do that because he needs to encourage development in the Church, blah blah blah.. The first rule of war is survival. Sacraficing your sailors, of whom you have a limited supply of, is not a good idea. Killing off your enemies best generals and admirals through “accidents” is not a bad idea. Merlin can take the facial feature of any person according the specs that were mentioned before. Assasinations by giving your enemies heart attacks or ruptured kidneys and spleens is not a hard thing to do with modern tech.
Comment by art — March 10, 2010 @ 2:14 am
Oh baby - I’ve got a feeling we’re going to have multiple fronts at some point in this next volume!
Comment by Israel Smith — March 10, 2010 @ 2:25 am
@3 while I agree wholeheartedly with you, I think we’ve found out a long time ago that Mr. Weber isn’t going to write things out that way. Fortunately, I think the prodigious technological superiority will more than take care of Charis’ enemies while only taking acceptable losses.
Comment by Israel Smith — March 10, 2010 @ 2:28 am
I wonder how many Tarotsian galleons will come over to Charis’ navy when (not if) Gorjah defects from the Church? (grin)
Comment by Peter S — March 10, 2010 @ 2:36 am
@art: And how much fun would it make to read such “Hit any foe with modern tech”-gobbledygook?
I give you my answer: Zero. Null. Niente. Nichevo. It would be a really boring experience …
Comment by Karsten — March 10, 2010 @ 2:41 am
Narry a mention of explosive shells, curious growing curiouser. We know those smoothbore explosive shells were completed just after the campaign in Corisande. Will Dohlar lose its yards I wonder, since Merlin can’t get to the ones in Harchong and Temple Lands? Can Gwylym fight his way through Thirsk’s navy? If he can, will Thirsk get scapegoated again.
Finally we get a better context for Gorjah’s midnight visitor. I suspect that Gorjah may just hold out until after Thirsk gets scapegoated at which point even he sees the handwriting on the wall. Either that or he figures that bringing Sharley what galleons the church let him build may be sweet enough to let him keep both his head and crown.
BTW, Art@3, too many unexplained events that also benefit Charis will ensure every safeholder believes that Shan Wei really is watching out for her own in Charis. Clyntahn will see to that and he won’t have to work very hard. Better to have obvious skill by as many Charisians as possible drive the Church to its knees and win converts than to have mysterious unfortunate events decimate the opposition.
Comment by PeterZ — March 10, 2010 @ 2:44 am
@3,5
yeah, David Weber isn’t John Ringo. We won’t be seeing Charisian navy seals anytime soon…although you might wonder what the point of mentioning those 200 assault rifles and million rounds of ammunition was for…
@3
still, i agree with you as well. Not only the merits of assassination but how about rescuing those poor charisian sailors being tortured after their capture at (? i forgot the name-you guys know) i mean we already have scout snipers which are basically marine force recon units….
Comment by John — March 10, 2010 @ 2:50 am
(@ 3 & 5)I mean if winning was all its about then nuke 99% of the population & start over. Merlin’s practically immortal so whats 800 years of rebuilding? & this time you make religion the devil and science the all saving doctrine…
Comment by wonderyweber — March 10, 2010 @ 2:55 am
@ 9
200 assault rifles…ballin ass bodyguards….
Comment by wonderyweber — March 10, 2010 @ 2:56 am
In a way Claw Island reminds me of the French garrisons in the islands off east Africa–Mauritius, etc.–during the Napoleonic era. Though this operation seems significantly larger, and it is directed more at military construction than commerce raiding.
Comment by jgnfld — March 10, 2010 @ 10:12 am
@3 You can’t ignite a Reformation and sustain an Enlightenment by killing off the most creative and adaptable people in a culture. Charis is not in a position to garrison the world even if they should “win” the way you propose. The end of the campaign you propose if successful would be more of a return to the Middle Ages for the continental mass of Safehold.
Comment by jgnfld — March 10, 2010 @ 10:15 am
@9
John, I know it’s torture but DW is gonna make us SWEAT before we finally get the sheer joy of seeing those assault rifles in action….
Comment by Maggie — March 10, 2010 @ 10:16 am
Gee, DW mentions a gun, and everyone assumes it has to be fired. Any bets on whether the commander of whatever unit ends up using those things is named “Chykov” or something like that?
Comment by Rich — March 10, 2010 @ 11:11 am
This looks like a setup for Gwylym to take a hit… possibly a big one. The Good Guys are vastly outnumbered, yes, but so far everything has pretty much gone their way. I see Thirsk as a Tourville analog, and like that Havenite admiral he’s going to have his successes.
Charis needs to suffer a few reverses for there to be any tension. I don’t expect Gwylym to lose his fleet or anything so dramatic, as that wouldn’t be a reverse, it would be a catastrophe. Charis IS vastly outnumbered. Now that I think about it, they’re going to have to come up with a few more revolutions for this to work out, and I don’t think exploding shells will do it. Galleon against galley gave us the situation that allowed 7-1 outnumbered good guys to hold the field with virtually no losses. The church can take 5-1 losses galleon against galleon and still win in the end, though, and you don’t have the speed and rate of fire advantage anymore. Massive crew qualitative differences will certainly give Charis a huge, huge edge, but not a ‘win every fight with virtually no losses’ kind of edge, especially against superior numbers manning tough, fast ships. And they need to win with virtually no losses to survive.
What’s the next major innovation that doesn’t smash the proscriptions into small pieces? Something out of 1634? Steam engines are likely a clear-cut violation, and armor doesn’t combine well with sail.
Comment by Michael — March 10, 2010 @ 11:14 am
“What’s the next major innovation “- How about Montgolfier balloons, they were used for observation in the (US) Civil war I think and in the Franco Prussian War (1870’s)to carry messages and post- Only useful in a land war but good cover for the SNARCs. Don’t use steam, or electricity…
I also still fancy running telegraph wires between the ‘telegraph’ stations, information mastery could win Cayleb the war and and DW could be signalling this by making a big point of the info gap arising with this expedition.
Comment by TimC — March 10, 2010 @ 11:57 am
@8
PZ, I agree that “mysterious” destruction of the Church fleet won’t work. But I wonder why a spy sneaking into the harbor and setting off barrel of gunpowder in the magazines of these ships wouldn’t work. Even just doing it with one or two would be a nice way to scare the opposition into being “half-defeated in their own minds before they even engage [Charis]“. Sending in 50 or so Marine Scout Snipers to basically do the same thing to several ships would be even better.
If they could get the scout snipers into the town, buy navy uniforms (or other appropriate clothing) from a local black market, then it could work out pretty well. They’d need to find people who could mimic the local patios appropriately, but there have to be at least a few dozen or so people out of the whole army who could pull that off. Blend in with the coming and going of the local crews, pose as members of the drafted population, and then after about a week have them all find a way to get to the magazines during Langhorne’s Watch and blow the ships up.
Some of the snipers would likely be lost and a few others captured. This is truly regrettable, but would actually be necessary in order to show that it was exactly what it was — a commando raid, not an act of Shan Wei. If they know that they are going on a near-suicide mission, however, and only volunteers are taken, it could work out.
Now that I think about it, wouldn’t have this been the absolute perfect way for Merlin to strike at the Harchong and Temple Lands ships? Because if they are frozen in to such a degree that they are completely unable to be worked on right now, the guard forces have to be very weak — or possibly even non-existent. A few dozen snipers managing to reach land nearby might have been able to wreak absolute havoc. It’s probably too late for such a plan to be put into effect this year, but perhaps they could make plans to do this NEXT year…
RH
Comment by RobertHuntingdon — March 10, 2010 @ 12:33 pm
INFODUMP TIME!!
Comment by Terranovan — March 10, 2010 @ 1:04 pm
For those who believe Merlin should use tech or personal capabilities in large scale actions to thwart the opposition, I must say I do not think it is going to happen. As others have noted, it would be counterproductive. The goal is to uplift all of society to tech and space capability. Moving Charis along in slow and steady progress, just enough to stay ahead of the rest, is the proper course. Military action will be required along the way, but all the world must see Charis in an increasingly favorable light, and the Church with disfavor. Sudden calamities affecting foes will be viewed as unnatural and detract from Merlin’s goal. After all, as far as I know Merlin has no deadline in his plans. He can, and likely will, take centuries to do a proper job. First defeat and discredit the Church, launch Safehold on the road to progress, introduce the true past and the realities about the supposed divinities, then proceed to confront the Gbaba. Any ‘magical’ actions by Merlin along the way will be strictly limited and urgently needed.
Comment by Summertime — March 10, 2010 @ 1:07 pm
Actually, RH, the only problems I had with such insertions was how the individuals would be delivered and that there would be absolutely no support or contact for them after insertion. That’s one of the problems with SNARCs, less reliance on human assets. Having a ‘local’ contact would have been really helpfull in pulling such an operation off.
Now, if Gwylym can actually keep that base of his and build it up a bit, we could see insertion networks developing. The interesting possibilities about such insertions will be Desnair. Don’t tell me that there are no escaped slave ‘populations’ roaming about the countryside. That would be a perfect base to build a geurilla force around. Especially should Charis offer safe haven for any slave who reaches its shores. Charis needs people worse than any production material. Each new immigrant means more productive capacity as the less educated swell the botom rungs of the economic ladder freeing the better educated to rise up a rung or two. Depending on the way serfs are treated, this may work for Harchong and the Temple Lands as well.
As for the Temple Lands yards, any insertion will be a bear. The extraction will be tougher yet as the seas will be frozen over.
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 1:19 pm
@17 Anybody want to bet that the next “major innovation” will be the Selective Service??
To Zhan Dhoe, from their Imperial Majesties:
Greetings….
Comment by Maggie — March 10, 2010 @ 1:52 pm
@22 re. “Zhan Doe”…now that’s just plain mean to our dear David, Maggie
:-) :-)!
Comment by jgnfld — March 10, 2010 @ 3:11 pm
@21 PZ, that’s why I think in terms of scout snipers. Whether they can handle letters or not, they have to be pretty wily folks even if they aren’t “book smart”. They’d almost certainly be the best folk to use, if any such “best folk” exist at all, of course.
Would it be hard? Probably very much so. But I’d really love it if Merlin or somebody else had come up with the idea and figured out a way to implement it. Maybe next book?
RH
Comment by RobertHuntingdon — March 10, 2010 @ 3:33 pm
@22 Maggie, your usage is a bit off. That’s Zhan D’ho! (runs away quickly)
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 3:36 pm
Agreed, RH@24. After the G4 is ousted, we will likely see just that.
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 3:43 pm
I think I’ve located Claw Island on the Pearls of Weber Safehold Map. Anyone else look for it?
Comment by Maria — March 10, 2010 @ 4:23 pm
Yeah, Maria, its one of the islands west of the Gulf of Dohlar on the equator.
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 5:51 pm
It’s Midway.
Comment by Rekes — March 10, 2010 @ 5:58 pm
@29 Perhaps, Rekes. I am beginning to view the geo-politics (as opposed to religous transition) of Safehold as more analogous to post Napoleon western hemisphere. Cast adrift by a massive change in the political calculus, those nations will begin to prey on each other.
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 6:07 pm
@30 The context is too modern, too rational to reflect anything else. And the Church is putting too little effort into getting ships through to spy on Charis. That or the probes are all happening off scene which is a blunder from the standpoint of intelligence considering that knowing where your enemy is looking indicates what he is thinking.
The Church has to lose political authority before its nations turn on each other. The common religious element may even prevent it. At the point where these nations are at each other’s throats, the role of Charis changes from instigator to peacekeeper (ala Kosovo) when the shit hits the fan, if Charis chooses to be in the business of nation salvaging that is.
Comment by Rekes — March 10, 2010 @ 6:25 pm
*Blunder in the sense that Cayleb should at least have the (Merlin has visions) “in the know” crowd talking down the chain of command about where the enemy is.
Comment by Rekes — March 10, 2010 @ 6:58 pm
C’mon, Rekes. We’re already getting a WWII analogy through the Honorverse. Post Napoleon is much better suited for this tech level and a post Church geopolitical Safehold. We all know the Church is getting whacked, what we don’t know is how and at what cost. Once the CoGA gets whacked the rest of Safehold will be tossed into chaos. The pending slavery issue just meshes real well with Safehold.
Comment by Peter Z — March 10, 2010 @ 8:11 pm
It seems obvious to me (due to all the doubts and hesitations Merlin has in this post) that this expedition will be a big failure. A serious setback for Charis (obviously some other big development or battle will even it out and make up for it); how predictable…
Comment by john — March 10, 2010 @ 11:16 pm
@33 I agreed with you on Napoleon. I should further my explanation by stating that up to WWII, and even in Napoleon’s case, the doctrine of war was to seek a decisive battle. Charis has fed this doctrine in Corisande but will need more than single engagements to win a war of this scale. The doctrines that support such a victory are those that were developed best in WWII to weaken the Japanese, indirect warfare, shipping interdiction, opening of multiple fronts, attacks on key civilian production are all things Charis may have to engage in shortly in order to weaken the Church before the true battles are joined. If you want to cripple a navy, aim at logistics.
@34 It seems obvious to me that because even Merlin doubts the expedition, Weber will have them go above and beyond before being slapped with overwhelming force followed by disproportionate casualties so high it will make nations reconsider the cost of this war.
Comment by Rekes — March 10, 2010 @ 11:35 pm
@35 It’s hard to weaken interior logistics. England had that trouble in the Napoleonic era as well. Some naval things come by sea as was stated in the previous volume. But in the main, interior logistics in the norm for the continental powers.
As for seeking a decisive battle, that is true. But it often took years even in a body as small as the Med to generate one with the signaling systems of the time. SNARCs can help, but then you have to be careful about always and repeatedly showing up unnanounced at nigh impossible times and places.
Comment by jgnfld — March 10, 2010 @ 11:55 pm
jgnfld, have you been reading an advanced copy of this book? [Wink]
Seriously, jgnfld is correct. Even with ‘near perfect’ knowledge of the movements of the Church’s fleet, getting info to the scattered Charis fleet admirals would be a big problem.
The number of people Cayleb, Merlin, etc can trust with the full truth will be limited and only people in the know can be given com-units.
Even with an Admiral ‘in the know’, a Charis fleet always knowing *where* the enemy is would cause big questions even among the Charis crews.
Questions could be answered in terms of “deals with the devil’.
Not something you want to happen when fighting a religious war.
Comment by Drak Bibliophile — March 11, 2010 @ 12:11 am
Drak…can you send me one???? Please! I have 2 children and could probably sacrifice one of them.
Comment by jgnfld — March 11, 2010 @ 12:24 am
@28 Yes, Peter but =which= island?
It was fun to try and figure it out with the clues dropped in the snippet; too bad there’s no latitude/longitude markings. Hm. Speaking of which, Safehold has compass assisted navigation. Do you think the introduction of Merlin’s innovations and math will lead to a clock accurate enough to allow for latitude navigating? Whoever has it would have an enormous advantage in a sea battle, I would think.
Comment by Maria — March 11, 2010 @ 12:34 am
@39 I think it would be safe to assume that it is the only island which is south of the equator, west of Queiroz, north of Greentree Island.. and in the shape of a “Claw”.
I imagine the docks are located on the southern side of the island, but of course thats mere speculation on my part. Perhaps we’ll finally hear some more about Sodar, Greentree Island, or what I really hope to hear about is why the “Barren Lands” have that name!
Comment by Israel Smith — March 11, 2010 @ 1:34 am
In regards to the forgotten captives of the ship seizures, we have the example of the fictional and later copied Scarlet Pimpernel, rescuing nobels and other falsely accused from the French revolution. While Merlin can’t do drastic changes to his face, there’s always actors and makeup.
Comment by Karina — March 11, 2010 @ 3:10 am
Oh yeah one of the real scarlet pimpernels’ was a priest who rescued people from the nazis.
Comment by Karina — March 11, 2010 @ 3:11 am
200 rifles……and didn’t that assault shuttle hold about 200 troops?
As to assassinations and ship destruction. Ships sink all the time in storms. People die all the time of disease, heart attacks and accidents. They key is for Merlin to manage it so its seen as normal, or can be blamed on sabotage. The idea that you would risk loosing a war for some vague need to encourage opposing innovation just doesn’t hold water. You can push social change all you want after you win. Everything you can do to help that victory, as long as it won’t result in to much social backlash, must be done.
I am of course talking about Merlin doing non-obvious things, not strolling down main street shooting lasers at bad guys. The risk of association with the devil is a different issue.
Comment by saul — March 11, 2010 @ 6:57 am
@43… I’ve already said this a couple of snippets back but it may bear repeating: You’re thinking about “winning”, and the end of winning your way would be some sort of “empire”. Merlin MUST think about igniting a Reformation and fanning it on through to an extended Enlightenment that goes all the way into the Scientific Age. This can only happen in a competitive environment. ANY sort of extended empire would stultify the very influences Merlin must foster much as has been the history of Safehold to date. He needs, to repeat myself again, “creative ferment” over an extended period of time.
I’m not the greatest historian, but I know of no empire that maintained continuing creative development for all that long. All eventually turn inward to the various capitals and fight it out there for a share of the power of past “glories”. Our present history is no exception.
Comment by jgnfld — March 11, 2010 @ 8:04 am
(cont.) Of course once Merlin is in a position to introduce the Gbaba into the equation, a world empire will be necessary. But then the need to prepare for the Gbaba will provide all the ferment–and stark terror–necessary. But that is waayyy down the road.
Comment by jgnfld — March 11, 2010 @ 8:09 am
Still expecting Merlin to use his magic powers? “key is for Merlin to manage it so its seen as normal” No the key is for Merlin to get the local humans to achieve change ‘we can believe in’ which means things they do themselves. A few more hints, we have had exploding shells, new rifles, galleons so I think it is time for Merlin to visit the shipyard or for the mathematician to come up with suggestions from Newton’s Principia. (understanding gravity will help in shell trajectories…) and I like the idea of a chronometer. What else?
Comment by TimC — March 11, 2010 @ 8:10 am
@46 I thought he gave Newton’s Principia to the College Dean in By Schism Rent Asunder?
@36 Thanks, jgnfld. That bit of insight helps frame the constraints my un-tactical mind tried to envision. I have to agree with you on 44-45. The best option is for some sort of Hegemony of Charis to develop. Where Charis may be first among equals but does not thoroughly dominate all the other nations. While they may dominate in key areas they do not, indeed CANNOT, dominate all areas and actaully depend on other nations in yet other areas, like trade. If Charis uses trade, something they depend on other nations for, as the leverage to force change on Safehold, they may actually balance their hegemony for quite some time.
Comment by Peter Z — March 11, 2010 @ 10:09 am
Claw Island is the small green speck above Greentree Island.
http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/images/safehold.jpg
Comment by Rekes — March 11, 2010 @ 3:58 pm
@44
How does assassinating a handful of key players, or weakening an enemies army prevent a competitive environment? I think being at war with the church and most of the population is already competitive enough.
He needs to make the current church look incompetent, corrupt and venal. That way he can challenge the proscriptions against change, or at least have them slowly cease to be the focus of the church.
Comment by saul — March 11, 2010 @ 4:02 pm
Assassinating the cream who are actually becoming the people you want (Thirsk) leaves the Clyntahn’s even more firmly in control. Yeah, you may “win”, but to what end with respect to Merlin’s long term goals?
Strengthening the Thirsk’s of the continental powers, to at least some degree, there is a balance to maintain, strengthens the very forces there that you need to awaken.
At least that is what I feel David is trying to set up and I’m certainly buying it. A further medievalized continent in which all power is broken is a setback not a win.
Comment by jgnfld — March 11, 2010 @ 5:43 pm
@48 If the assassinations were carried out by obviously understandable means, there should be no problems. Unless of course like in Corisande people think Cayleb is an ruthless, amoral SOB. When enough people believe that, can Cayleb EVER get people to really trust him with say…a real troubling religious secret? Mysterious deaths on the other hand….yeah, big problem.
Now, will the targeted killings retard the church alliance? Of course it will, just at the time when NEW leadership is comming into power (assuming the G4 indeed gets whacked). Will these new leaders be cut from the same mold as Thirsk? No, cause he’s dead, along with every other serious innovative thinker that’s been assassinated. What’s left are the hanger’s on who could schmooze their way into authority or the dilligent flunkies like a Vicar Magwair. Some of those original thinkers have to survive in order to achieve Merlin’s long term goal.
Not killing the ablest of the enemy reduces one’s chances of victory, unfortunately in this calculus, killing all the brightest inovators will also make things more difficult. From Merlin’s perspective the goal to to push Safehold forward, not to secure a Charisian victory. If he can achieve his paramount goal by sacrificing Charis, then Charis gets sacrificed. Think Victor Cachat doing his duty or Honor Harrington doing hers despite a huge personal sacrifice. Both will do their duty regardless of the cost for doing it, and yes they will bleed profusely for the doing just as Merlin would.
Comment by Peter Z — March 11, 2010 @ 7:33 pm
@44 and must develop the power of the press and free thinking. Only a mind shift can prepare the world for a public questioning of the COGA. Then the proscriptions are no-longer obstacles and a new ‘age’ can come. I’d be putting OWL to use cranking out leaflets and use Merlin’s toys to distribute them….
Comment by Malcolm — March 11, 2010 @ 8:52 pm
But social change does not stop once the war is over. You don’t have to do all your remolding of society at once.
Sure, there are big advantages to having innovators on the other side change teams and act as role models. However, surviving the war is more important. You have generations to mold society after you take over.
It would be trivial for Merlin to induce heart attacks/strokes etc in targeted enemies. (and falls from horses, ships sinking, food poisoning etc)
Comment by saul — March 11, 2010 @ 9:00 pm
@52…
You’re not thinking globally. Who, exactly is going to remold what??? Let’s say France “conquered” the rest of today’s world by directed assassinations and a buildup of advanced machines. That would lead to a great flowering of world knowledge? I think not. Even if the French were really trying to that goal. Consider the end of Twain’s A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court: The “advanced” people were literally killed by the rotting corpses of the overpowering number of the less advanced enemies they killed. This is Merlin’s dilemma every day, and he well knows it.
Merlin needs an advanced world society as fast as possible. Using a small country to try to garrison and advance a whole world by centuries through the agency of a small cabal of advanced people is just is not the way to do it.
Comment by jgnfld — March 11, 2010 @ 9:53 pm
Merlin’s goal is to break the anti-technology mindset of Safehold and lead humanity back to the stars. Charis’s goal is to survive and prosper in a world where almost every other kingdom is against her. Both the goals may result in them traveling the same path at this time but they are not the same. In the unlikely scenario where Charis is destroyed but somehow the mainland kingdoms break away from the mother church, Merlin’s goal is still on track.
I think Merlin won’t use much of his powers directly as he is effectively immortal and his actions might be held accountable in the far future. There will be a time where he will have to work with all the people of Safehold including all current enemies of Charis. I imagine there might be an ackward moment if 2-3 centuries later if some Harchongese ask Merlin if he play a part in the mysterious disappearance of their fleets in the past.
Comment by gary — March 11, 2010 @ 10:14 pm
@48 I think Claw Island is the small pale green speck just south of the equator line and a bit left to and on the same level as the ‘H’ in the caption “South Harchong Empire”.
Comment by Maria — March 11, 2010 @ 11:36 pm
Everyone seems to be assuming that Charis and CoGA will be fighting for a long time. What is needed is a dramatic way to bring down CoGA. The answer might be the orbital bombardment system. If Merlin could get it to attack the Temple this would solve a lot of problems. Having a rakurai attack on Mother Church would be a definite sign of God’s displeasure. This would discredit (as well as behead) CoGA. Charis and the Brethren of St Zherneau would be in a perfect position to fill the resulting power vacuum. And the orbital system would use up it’s ammunition in the attack, leaving Safehold able to develop advanced technology.
Comment by Tom B — March 12, 2010 @ 1:36 am